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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Persebaya Surabaya v Persepam Madura Utd: numbers & prediction

Liga 1 · Indonesia · Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium

Persebaya Surabaya

LDWDW
3–1
FT

Persepam Madura Utd

WDLWW
Persebaya Surabaya 64%Draw 23%Persepam Madura Utd 13% Expected goals 1.78 – 0.64
64%
Betarazi pick

Persebaya Surabaya to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.44Odds

Picks by market

ResultPersebaya Surabaya to win ✓64% · @1.44
Double chancePersebaya Surabaya or draw ✓87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.07

Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

13:00 WAT, Monday 26 October: Persebaya Surabaya v Persepam Madura Utd in the Liga 1, played at Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium. In the table, Persebaya Surabaya are 8th, upper half, on 13 points after 9 matches; Persepam Madura Utd are 4th (among the top four) with 19.

Current form

Persebaya Surabaya, last 5: LDWDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to PSM Makassar, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Persepam Madura Utd, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Persib Bandung, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Persepam Madura Utd, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Persebaya Surabaya.

Head to head

When they last met (17 Apr 2026) it ended Persebaya Surabaya 1–2 Persepam Madura Utd.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Persebaya Surabaya 1.8 xG, Persepam Madura Utd 0.6 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 52%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Persebaya Surabaya 64%, draw 23%, Persepam Madura Utd 13%.
  • GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.70.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Persebaya Surabaya to win (64%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Persebaya Surabaya 1–0 Persepam Madura Utd. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Persebaya Surabaya64%fair 1.55 · @1.44
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.90
Persepam Madura Utd13%fair 7.86 · @5.50
2.42Expected goals
1.78Persebaya Surabaya xG
0.64Persepam Madura Utd xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%

From our goals model: Persebaya Surabaya 1.8 – 0.6 Persepam Madura Utd expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPersebaya Surabaya to win ✓64%1.551.44
Double chancePersebaya Surabaya or draw ✓87%1.151.12
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓52%1.931.70
Draw no betPersebaya Surabaya (draw no bet) ✓84%1.20–
Asian handicapPersebaya Surabaya -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓65%1.55–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓70%1.44–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗56%1.77–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77%1.29–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓90%1.11–
First team to scorePersebaya Surabaya to score first ✓67%1.50–
Half-time resultPersebaya Surabaya ahead at half-time ✓45%2.23–
Half-time / full-timeHT Persebaya Surabaya / FT Persebaya Surabaya ✓41%2.46–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.07–

Recent results

Persebaya Surabaya – last 6

LDWDWD
22 Oct@ PSM Makassar0–1L
18 Octvs PSS Sleman2–2D
9 Oct@ Isenmulang Kalteng1–0W
19 Sepvs Garudayaksa1–1D
13 Sepvs PSIM Yogyakarta1–0W
5 Sep@ Bhayangkara FC1–1D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Persepam Madura Utd – last 6

WDLWWW
22 Octvs Persib Bandung1–0W
16 Octvs Bhayangkara FC3–3D
9 Oct@ Persik Kediri0–2L
18 Sepvs PSIM Yogyakarta2–1W
12 Sep@ PSS Sleman3–1W
6 Sepvs Persijap2–0W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

17 Apr 2026Persebaya Surabaya v Persepam Madura Utd1–2
Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd head-to-head page →

Liga 1 table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Persija9702+1121
2Dewa United9621+420
3Bali United9612+1719
4Persepam Madura Utd9612+619
5Persib Bandung9513+616
6Persita8431+615
7Java United9432+313
8Persebaya Surabaya9342+213
9Bhayangkara FC9261+112
10Garudayaksa9324-411
11Pusamania Borneo8314-210
12PSM Makassar9243-410
13Persik Kediri9315-510
14Arema FC9234-39
15Isenmulang Kalteng9225-126
16PSS Sleman9126-55
17PSIM Yogyakarta9126-85
18Persijap9027-132

More Liga 1 predictions

League hub
FT Bhayangkara FC0 PSM Makassar0 163%1.55X21%3.60216%5.00 2.2–1.1xG 1Bhayangkara FC to win 63%@1.55 ✗
FT Persija2 Persik Kediri1 168%1.25X17%5.00216%9.00 1.9–0.7xG 1Persija to win 68%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?

Our pick is Persebaya Surabaya to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?

On our numbers Persebaya Surabaya have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Persepam Madura Utd 13%.

How many goals will there be in Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?

Our predicted score is Persebaya Surabaya 1–0 Persepam Madura Utd, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?

Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd (Liga 1) kicks off on Monday 26 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.