Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
2
Value bet: Union Comercio to win @ 2.45 – our chance 44% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultUnion Comercio to win ✓44% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.64
Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 17 August the Segunda División brings Molinos El Pirata against Union Comercio. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT. In the table, Molinos El Pirata are 4th, among the top four, on 25 points after 16 matches; Union Comercio are 1st (leading the league) with 32.
Current form
Molinos El Pirata, last 5: DLWLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cesar Vallejo, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Union Comercio, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Academia Cantolao, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Union Comercio, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Molinos El Pirata.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Molinos El Pirata 1.0 xG, Union Comercio 1.2 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 45%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Molinos El Pirata 33%, draw 23%, Union Comercio 44%.
Price worth noting: Union Comercio to win @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (59%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: Molinos El Pirata 1–1 Union Comercio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Molinos El Pirata33%fair 3.05 · @2.70
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.10
Union Comercio44%fair 2.26 · @2.45
2.25Expected goals
1.01Molinos El Pirata xG
1.24Union Comercio xG
45%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–011%
0–011%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Molinos El Pirata 1.0 – 1.2 Union Comercio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Union Comercio to win✓
44%
2.26
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
–
Draw no bet
Union Comercio (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Molinos El Pirata +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Union Comercio to score first✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Union Comercio / FT Union Comercio✓
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.64
–
Recent results
Molinos El Pirata – last 6
DLWLLW
9 Aug
@ Cesar Vallejo
1–1
D
26 Jul
@ Deportiva Agropecuaria
1–3
L
20 Jul
vs U. San Martin
3–2
W
10 Jul
@ Alianza Atletico
2–3
L
22 Jun
@ Atletico Grau
2–3
L
13 Jun
vs Universitario
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Union Comercio – last 6
WDLLWW
7 Aug
vs Academia Cantolao
4–0
W
25 Jul
@ Cesar Vallejo
0–0
D
27 Jun
@ Sporting Cristal
0–2
L
20 Jun
vs Comerciantes
0–1
L
15 Jun
@ Estudiantil CNI
3–1
W
31 May
vs Deportiva Agropecuaria
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Molinos El Pirata and Union Comercio.
What is the prediction for Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio?
On our numbers Molinos El Pirata have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Union Comercio 44%.
How many goals will there be in Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio?
Our predicted score is Molinos El Pirata 1–1 Union Comercio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio?
Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio (Segunda División) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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