Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.21 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.21Odds
2
Value bet: Ligorna to win @ 1.78 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLigorna to win ✓62% · @1.78
Double chanceLigorna or draw ✓85% · @1.21
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.93
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–3 ✗7% · fair 13.76
Valenzana vs Ligorna: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ligorna travel to face Valenzana on Sunday 25 October in the Serie D Girone A – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Valenzana are 17th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 11 matches; Ligorna are 5th (upper half) with 18. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Valenzana, last 5: LDWWL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Biellese, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Ligorna, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Bra, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Ligorna, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Valenzana.
Head to head
When they last met (29 Mar 2026) it ended Valenzana 1–0 Ligorna.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Valenzana 0.9 xG, Ligorna 2.0 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 53% and GG at 48%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Valenzana 15%, draw 23%, Ligorna 62%.
Lower-risk option: Ligorna or draw (85%) at 1.21.
Price worth noting: Ligorna to win @1.78 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ligorna or draw (85%, odds 1.21 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Valenzana 0–2 Ligorna. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Valenzana15%fair 6.63 · @4.00
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.35
Ligorna62%fair 1.62 · @1.78
2.96Expected goals
0.93Valenzana xG
2.04Ligorna xG
48%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Valenzana 0.9 – 2.0 Ligorna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Ligorna or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Valenzana vs Ligorna?
On our numbers Valenzana have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ligorna 62%.
How many goals will there be in Valenzana vs Ligorna?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valenzana vs Ligorna?
Our predicted score is Valenzana 0–2 Ligorna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Valenzana vs Ligorna?
Valenzana vs Ligorna (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
