Value bet: Leon to win @ 3.20 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultChievo to win ✓39% · @2.16
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · fair 1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.82
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.84
Leon vs Chievo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 25 October the Serie D Girone B brings Leon against Chievo. Kick-off: 14:30 WAT. In the table, Leon are 5th, upper half, on 21 points after 11 matches; Chievo are 1st (leading the league) with 25.
Current form
Leon, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Virtus Ciserano Bergamo, away. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Chievo, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Milan II, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Leon, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Chievo.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Apr 2026) it ended Leon Monza e Brianza 2–2 Chievo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leon 1.4 xG, Chievo 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leon 38%, draw 23%, Chievo 39%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.82.
Price worth noting: Leon to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leon 1–1 Chievo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leon38%fair 2.66 · @3.20
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.15
Chievo39%fair 2.54 · @2.16
2.78Expected goals
1.37Leon xG
1.41Chievo xG
54%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–06%
From our goals model: Leon 1.4 – 1.4 Chievo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Leon vs Chievo?
On our numbers Leon have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Chievo 39%.
How many goals will there be in Leon vs Chievo?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leon vs Chievo?
Our predicted score is Leon 1–1 Chievo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Leon vs Chievo?
Leon vs Chievo (Serie D Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
