Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultTernana to win ✓63% · @1.57
Double chanceTernana or draw ✓83% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.89
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–3 ✗7% · fair 13.61
Progresso vs Ternana: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ternana travel to face Progresso on Sunday 25 October in the Serie D Girone E – the ball rolls at 14:30 WAT. In the table, Progresso are 17th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 11 matches; Ternana are 3rd (among the top four) with 21. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Progresso, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Grassina, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Ternana, last 5: WWDWD Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Recanatese, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.7 a game lately.
Momentum favours Ternana, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.0 for Progresso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Progresso 0.8 xG, Ternana 1.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 47%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Progresso 17%, draw 21%, Ternana 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ternana to win (63%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Progresso 0–1 Ternana. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Progresso17%fair 6.06 · @5.25
Draw21%fair 4.78 · @3.50
Ternana63%fair 1.60 · @1.57
2.73Expected goals
0.84Progresso xG
1.89Ternana xG
47%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–112%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
0–06%
From our goals model: Progresso 0.8 – 1.9 Ternana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ternana to win✓
63%
1.60
1.57
Double chance
Ternana or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
–
Draw no bet
Ternana (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Ternana -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Ternana to score first✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Ternana ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ternana / FT Ternana✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–3✗
7%
13.61
–
Recent results
Progresso – last 6
LLLLLL
18 Oct
@ Grassina
0–1
L
11 Oct
vs Robur Siena
0–1
L
4 Oct
@ Rondinella
1–2
L
27 Sep
@ Montevarchi Calcio
0–2
L
20 Sep
vs Seravezza
0–3
L
16 Sep
@ Lucchese
0–5
L
0.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ternana – last 6
WWDWDW
21 Oct
vs Recanatese
5–1
W
18 Oct
vs Robur Siena
2–1
W
11 Oct
@ Lucchese
2–2
D
4 Oct
vs Montevarchi Calcio
4–1
W
27 Sep
@ Scandicci
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Tau Altopascio
3–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progresso and Ternana.
Our pick is Ternana to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Progresso vs Ternana?
On our numbers Progresso have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Ternana 63%.
How many goals will there be in Progresso vs Ternana?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progresso vs Ternana?
Our predicted score is Progresso 0–1 Ternana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Progresso vs Ternana?
Progresso vs Ternana (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
