Value bet: Montevarchi Calcio to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSan Donato Tavarnelle to win ✓41% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · fair 1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.70
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 1 November the Serie D Girone E brings San Donato Tavarnelle against Montevarchi Calcio. Kick-off: 14:30 WAT. In the table, San Donato Tavarnelle are 12th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Montevarchi Calcio are 9th (upper half) with 16. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
San Donato Tavarnelle, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Scandicci, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Montevarchi Calcio, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Grassina, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Montevarchi Calcio, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for San Donato Tavarnelle.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give San Donato Tavarnelle 1.4 xG, Montevarchi Calcio 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – San Donato Tavarnelle 41%, draw 23%, Montevarchi Calcio 36%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Montevarchi Calcio to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.27). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Donato Tavarnelle 1–1 Montevarchi Calcio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
San Donato Tavarnelle41%fair 2.42 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.20
Montevarchi Calcio36%fair 2.79 · @3.10
2.63Expected goals
1.37San Donato Tavarnelle xG
1.26Montevarchi Calcio xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: San Donato Tavarnelle 1.4 – 1.3 Montevarchi Calcio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Donato Tavarnelle to win✓
41%
2.42
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.75
Draw no bet
San Donato Tavarnelle (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Montevarchi Calcio +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.27
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.31
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
San Donato Tavarnelle to score first✓
48%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Donato Tavarnelle / FT San Donato Tavarnelle✗
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.70
–
Recent results
San Donato Tavarnelle – last 6
LWLDLL
25 Oct
@ Scandicci
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Tau Altopascio
1–0
W
11 Oct
@ Prato
0–2
L
4 Oct
vs Mezzolara
1–1
D
27 Sep
@ Flaminia
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Gavorrano
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Montevarchi Calcio – last 6
WWLLWL
25 Oct
vs Grassina
1–0
W
18 Oct
@ Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
3–0
W
11 Oct
vs Rondinella
0–1
L
4 Oct
@ Ternana
1–4
L
27 Sep
vs Progresso
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Robur Siena
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Donato Tavarnelle and Montevarchi Calcio.
What is the prediction for San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio?
On our numbers San Donato Tavarnelle have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Montevarchi Calcio 36%.
How many goals will there be in San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio?
Our predicted score is San Donato Tavarnelle 1–1 Montevarchi Calcio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio?
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
