Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Vigor Senigallia to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVigor Senigallia to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceVigor Senigallia or draw ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗6% · fair 15.71
Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Vigor Senigallia welcome Fossombrone for a Serie D Girone F fixture on Sunday 27 September (14:00 WAT). In the table, Vigor Senigallia are 5th, upper half, on 19 points after 11 matches; Fossombrone are 6th (upper half) with 17. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Vigor Senigallia, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Termoli Calcio, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.
Fossombrone, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Lanciano FC, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Vigor Senigallia, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Fossombrone.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vigor Senigallia 2.0 xG, Fossombrone 1.0 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 52% and GG at 49%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vigor Senigallia 60%, draw 21%, Fossombrone 20%.
Lower-risk option: Vigor Senigallia or draw (80%) at 1.25.
Price worth noting: Vigor Senigallia to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Vigor Senigallia or draw (80%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vigor Senigallia 1–1 Fossombrone. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vigor Senigallia60%fair 1.67 · @1.95
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.25
Fossombrone20%fair 5.11 · @3.40
3.01Expected goals
1.98Vigor Senigallia xG
1.03Fossombrone xG
49%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–010%
2–010%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Vigor Senigallia 2.0 – 1.0 Fossombrone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vigor Senigallia to win✗
60%
1.67
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Vigor Senigallia or draw✓
80%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
–
Draw no bet
Vigor Senigallia (draw no bet)
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Fossombrone +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
2.05 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
First team to score
Vigor Senigallia to score first✗
62%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Vigor Senigallia ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vigor Senigallia / FT Vigor Senigallia✗
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0✗
6%
15.71
–
Recent results
Vigor Senigallia – last 6
WWWWDL
20 Sep
@ Termoli Calcio
2–1
W
16 Sep
@ Lanciano FC
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs Real Giulianova
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Sporting Trestina
5–2
W
3 May
@ Unipomezia
3–3
D
26 Apr
vs Chieti
2–3
L
2.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Fossombrone – last 6
LWLWLL
20 Sep
vs Lanciano FC
2–4
L
16 Sep
@ Sporting Trestina
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs L'Aquila
0–4
L
6 Sep
@ Real Giulianova
2–1
W
1 Aug
@ Cesena
0–3
L
3 May
@ Recanatese
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vigor Senigallia and Fossombrone.
What is the prediction for Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone?
Our pick is Vigor Senigallia or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone?
On our numbers Vigor Senigallia have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Fossombrone 20%.
How many goals will there be in Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone?
Our predicted score is Vigor Senigallia 1–1 Fossombrone, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone?
Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
