Ghaz Al Shamal 26%Draw 23%Newroz 51%Expected goals 0.76 – 1.23
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Newroz to win @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNewroz to win ✗51% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.66
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓65% · @1.53
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.92
Ghaz Al Shamal vs Newroz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 19 September the Iraqi League brings Ghaz Al Shamal against Newroz. Kick-off: 16:45 WAT. In the table, Ghaz Al Shamal are 10th, upper half, on 16 points after 13 matches; Newroz are 2nd (among the top four) with 26.
Current form
Ghaz Al Shamal, last 5: DDLWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Al Shorta, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Newroz, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Al-Jolan SC, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Newroz, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Ghaz Al Shamal.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ghaz Al Shamal 0.8 xG, Newroz 1.2 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ghaz Al Shamal 26%, draw 23%, Newroz 51%.
Price worth noting: Newroz to win @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ghaz Al Shamal 0–1 Newroz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ghaz Al Shamal26%fair 3.83 · @3.25
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.00
Newroz51%fair 1.98 · @2.10
1.98Expected goals
0.76Ghaz Al Shamal xG
1.23Newroz xG
40%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–117%
0–014%
1–113%
1–010%
0–210%
1–28%
From our goals model: Ghaz Al Shamal 0.8 – 1.2 Newroz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newroz to win✗
51%
1.98
2.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
–
Draw no bet
Newroz (draw no bet)
66%
1.52
–
Asian handicap
Ghaz Al Shamal +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
First team to score
Newroz to score first✗
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newroz / FT Newroz✗
27%
3.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
5.92
–
Recent results
Ghaz Al Shamal – last 6
DDLWDD
12 Sep
@ Al Shorta
0–0
D
8 Sep
@ Duhok
1–1
D
4 Sep
vs Al-Jolan SC
0–1
L
30 Aug
@ Gharraf
1–0
W
25 Aug
@ Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1–1
D
20 Aug
vs Al Kahrabaa
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Newroz – last 6
WWWDLL
14 Sep
@ Al-Jolan SC
2–0
W
9 Sep
vs Mosul
3–0
W
4 Sep
@ Naft Maysan
2–0
W
30 Aug
vs Duhok
0–0
D
26 Aug
@ Al Talaba
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ Gharraf
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ghaz Al Shamal and Newroz.
What is the prediction for Ghaz Al Shamal vs Newroz?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Ghaz Al Shamal vs Newroz?
On our numbers Ghaz Al Shamal have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Newroz 51%.
How many goals will there be in Ghaz Al Shamal vs Newroz?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ghaz Al Shamal vs Newroz?
Our predicted score is Ghaz Al Shamal 0–1 Newroz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Ghaz Al Shamal vs Newroz?
Ghaz Al Shamal vs Newroz (Iraqi League) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
