Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Naft to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNaft to win ✓62% · @1.91
Double chanceNaft or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.79
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.52
Naft vs Diyala: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 9 October the Iraqi League brings Naft against Diyala. Kick-off: 17:45 WAT. In the table, Naft are 3rd, among the top four, on 25 points after 13 matches; Diyala are 12th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
Naft, last 5: WWLWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Mosul, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Diyala, last 5: DWLLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Al Quwa Al Jawiya, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Naft, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Diyala.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Naft 1.7 xG, Diyala 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 44%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Naft 62%, draw 21%, Diyala 16%.
Lower-risk option: Naft or draw (84%) at 1.20.
Price worth noting: Naft to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Naft or draw (84%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Naft 1–0 Diyala. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Naft62%fair 1.60 · @1.91
Draw21%fair 4.70 · @3.10
Diyala16%fair 6.14 · @3.75
2.41Expected goals
1.70Naft xG
0.71Diyala xG
44%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Naft 1.7 – 0.7 Diyala expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Naft to win✓
62%
1.60
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Naft or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
–
Draw no bet
Naft (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Naft -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Naft to score first✓
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Naft / FT Naft✗
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.52
–
Recent results
Naft – last 6
WWLWDD
18 Sep
@ Mosul
1–0
W
14 Sep
vs Karbala
2–1
W
9 Sep
@ Al-Karma
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Al Minaa Basra
3–0
W
31 Aug
@ Al Talaba
0–0
D
26 Aug
vs Duhok
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Diyala – last 6
DWLLDD
19 Sep
@ Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Gharraf
3–1
W
8 Sep
@ Erbil
0–2
L
3 Sep
vs Al-Karma
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Al-Jolan SC
3–3
D
25 Aug
@ Zakho
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naft and Diyala.
Our pick is Naft or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Naft vs Diyala?
On our numbers Naft have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Diyala 16%.
How many goals will there be in Naft vs Diyala?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naft vs Diyala?
Our predicted score is Naft 1–0 Diyala, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Naft vs Diyala?
Naft vs Diyala (Iraqi League) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
