Al Minaa Basra 41%Draw 23%Ghaz Al Shamal 35%Expected goals 1.02 – 0.92
66%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Ghaz Al Shamal to win @ 3.60 – our chance 35% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +28%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAl Minaa Basra to win ✓41% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.66
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓66% · @1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.80
Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Al Minaa Basra welcome Ghaz Al Shamal for a Iraqi League fixture on Saturday 10 October (16:00 WAT). In the table, Al Minaa Basra are 9th, upper half, on 17 points after 13 matches; Ghaz Al Shamal are 10th (upper half) with 16. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Al Minaa Basra, last 5: DLDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Duhok, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Ghaz Al Shamal, last 5: DDDLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Newroz, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Al Minaa Basra 1.0 xG, Ghaz Al Shamal 0.9 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Al Minaa Basra 41%, draw 23%, Ghaz Al Shamal 35%.
Price worth noting: Ghaz Al Shamal to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (66%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Al Minaa Basra 1–0 Ghaz Al Shamal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Al Minaa Basra41%fair 2.43 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.00
Ghaz Al Shamal35%fair 2.82 · @3.60
1.94Expected goals
1.02Al Minaa Basra xG
0.92Ghaz Al Shamal xG
40%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Al Minaa Basra 1.0 – 0.9 Ghaz Al Shamal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Minaa Basra to win✓
41%
2.43
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
–
Draw no bet
Al Minaa Basra (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.86
–
Asian handicap
Ghaz Al Shamal +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
First team to score
Al Minaa Basra to score first✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
23%
4.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.80
–
Recent results
Al Minaa Basra – last 6
DLDLLW
18 Sep
vs Duhok
1–1
D
13 Sep
@ Al Kahrabaa
1–2
L
9 Sep
vs Naft Maysan
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Naft
0–3
L
31 Aug
@ Erbil
0–2
L
26 Aug
vs Gharraf
3–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ghaz Al Shamal – last 6
DDDLWD
19 Sep
vs Newroz
0–0
D
12 Sep
@ Al Shorta
0–0
D
8 Sep
@ Duhok
1–1
D
4 Sep
vs Al-Jolan SC
0–1
L
30 Aug
@ Gharraf
1–0
W
25 Aug
@ Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Minaa Basra and Ghaz Al Shamal.
What is the prediction for Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
On our numbers Al Minaa Basra have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ghaz Al Shamal 35%.
How many goals will there be in Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Our predicted score is Al Minaa Basra 1–0 Ghaz Al Shamal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Al Minaa Basra vs Ghaz Al Shamal (Iraqi League) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
