Erbil 63%Draw 23%Ghaz Al Shamal 14%Expected goals 1.48 – 0.49
63%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Picks by market
ResultErbil to win ✗63% · @1.60
Double chanceErbil or draw ✓86% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗63% · fair 1.59
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓63% · @1.65
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.85
Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ghaz Al Shamal travel to face Erbil on Saturday 31 October in the Iraqi League, with Franso Hariri Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 17:30 WAT. In the table, Erbil are 7th, upper half, on 20 points after 13 matches; Ghaz Al Shamal are 10th (upper half) with 16.
Current form
Erbil, last 5: LLLDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Zakho, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Ghaz Al Shamal, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Naft Maysan, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Ghaz Al Shamal, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Erbil.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Erbil 1.5 xG, Ghaz Al Shamal 0.5 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Erbil 63%, draw 23%, Ghaz Al Shamal 14%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (63%, odds 1.65 – longer than our fair 1.59, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Erbil 1–0 Ghaz Al Shamal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Erbil63%fair 1.58 · @1.60
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.50
Ghaz Al Shamal14%fair 7.35 · @5.00
1.97Expected goals
1.48Erbil xG
0.49Ghaz Al Shamal xG
37%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–021%
2–015%
0–014%
1–110%
3–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Erbil 1.5 – 0.5 Ghaz Al Shamal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Erbil to win✗
63%
1.58
1.60
Double chance
Erbil or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
63%
1.59
–
Draw no bet
Erbil (draw no bet)
82%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Erbil -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
First team to score
Erbil to score first
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Erbil / FT Erbil✗
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.85
–
Recent results
Erbil – last 6
LLLDWL
22 Oct
@ Zakho
1–2
L
17 Oct
vs Mosul
0–1
L
14 Oct
@ Ajman
4–5
L
8 Oct
@ Naft Maysan
1–1
D
18 Sep
@ Karbala
3–0
W
14 Sep
vs Al-Karma
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Ghaz Al Shamal – last 6
WWLDDD
24 Oct
vs Naft Maysan
1–0
W
18 Oct
vs Al Zawra'a
1–0
W
10 Oct
@ Al Minaa Basra
0–2
L
19 Sep
vs Newroz
0–0
D
12 Sep
@ Al Shorta
0–0
D
8 Sep
@ Duhok
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Erbil and Ghaz Al Shamal.
What is the prediction for Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
On our numbers Erbil have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ghaz Al Shamal 14%.
How many goals will there be in Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Our predicted score is Erbil 1–0 Ghaz Al Shamal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Erbil vs Ghaz Al Shamal (Iraqi League) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Franso Hariri Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
