Nacional Asuncion 63%Draw 21%Sportivo Luqueno 16%Expected goals 1.88 – 0.82
84%
Betarazi pick
Nacional Asuncion or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Nacional Asuncion to win @ 1.80 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNacional Asuncion to win ✓63% · @1.80
Double chanceNacional Asuncion or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗7% · fair 13.45
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 24 August the Division Profesional Clausura brings Nacional Asuncion against Sportivo Luqueno at Estadio Arsenio Erico. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Nacional Asuncion are 4th, among the top four, on 32 points after 19 matches; Sportivo Luqueno are 8th (lower half) with 22.
Current form
Nacional Asuncion, last 5: WDDLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Benjamín Aceval, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Sportivo Luqueno, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Paraguari AC, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (27 Mar 2026) it ended Nacional Asuncion 3–2 Sportivo Luqueno.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nacional Asuncion 1.9 xG, Sportivo Luqueno 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nacional Asuncion 63%, draw 21%, Sportivo Luqueno 16%.
Lower-risk option: Nacional Asuncion or draw (84%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Nacional Asuncion to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Nacional Asuncion or draw (84%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Luqueno. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nacional Asuncion63%fair 1.59 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.30
Sportivo Luqueno16%fair 6.11 · @4.20
2.70Expected goals
1.88Nacional Asuncion xG
0.82Sportivo Luqueno xG
49%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Nacional Asuncion 1.9 – 0.8 Sportivo Luqueno expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
Our pick is Nacional Asuncion or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
On our numbers Nacional Asuncion have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sportivo Luqueno 16%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
Our predicted score is Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Luqueno, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno (Division Profesional Clausura) kicks off on Monday 24 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arsenio Erico.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
