Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultGenoa to win ✓63% · @1.62
Double chanceGenoa or draw ✓88% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.85
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗7% · fair 14.63
Genoa vs Sudtirol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Genoa welcome Sudtirol to Stadio Luigi Ferraris for a Coppa Italia fixture on Tuesday 15 September (17:00 WAT).
Current form
Genoa, last 5: DLLLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Frosinone, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Sudtirol, last 5: DWDWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Modena, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Sudtirol, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.7 for Genoa.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Genoa 3.3 xG, Sudtirol 1.7 xG – a total near 5.0. That is an open game on paper: 88% for three or more goals, 62% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Genoa 63%, draw 25%, Sudtirol 12%.
Lower-risk option: Genoa or draw (88%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Genoa to win (63%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.58, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Genoa 3–1 Sudtirol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Genoa63%fair 1.58 · @1.62
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.60
Sudtirol12%fair 8.29 · @5.00
5.00Expected goals
3.29Genoa xG
1.71Sudtirol xG
62%Both score
88%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
3–17%
2–16%
3–26%
4–16%
2–25%
4–25%
From our goals model: Genoa 3.3 – 1.7 Sudtirol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Genoa to win✓
63%
1.58
1.62
Double chance
Genoa or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
Genoa (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Genoa -1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
96%
1.04
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Over 4.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
–
First team to score
Genoa to score first✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Genoa ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Genoa / FT Genoa✗
47%
2.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
7%
14.63
–
Recent results
Genoa – last 6
DLLLWL
12 Sep
vs Frosinone
1–1
D
4 Sep
vs Como
1–4
L
30 Aug
@ Lazio
0–1
L
22 Aug
vs Napoli
0–2
L
16 Aug
vs Ascoli
4–1
W
8 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sudtirol – last 6
DWDWDW
12 Sep
vs Modena
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Catanzaro
2–0
W
30 Aug
@ Benevento
1–1
D
22 Aug
vs Virtus Entella
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Catanzaro
2–2
D
7 Aug
vs Virtus Verona
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Genoa and Sudtirol.
Our pick is Genoa to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Genoa vs Sudtirol?
On our numbers Genoa have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sudtirol 12%.
How many goals will there be in Genoa vs Sudtirol?
We expect about 5.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Genoa vs Sudtirol?
Our predicted score is Genoa 3–1 Sudtirol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.0 goals in total.
When is Genoa vs Sudtirol?
Genoa vs Sudtirol (Coppa Italia) kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Coppa Italia · Italy · Stadio Luigi Ferraris
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