Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNovara to win ✗40% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.35
Novara vs Livorno: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Thursday 3 September: Novara v Livorno in the Coppa Italia Serie C, played at Stadio Silvio Piola.
Current form
Novara, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Folgore Caratese, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Livorno, last 5: DWWDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Pineto, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Livorno, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.2 for Novara.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Novara 1.3 xG, Livorno 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Novara 40%, draw 23%, Livorno 38%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Novara 1–1 Livorno. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Novara40%fair 2.51 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.20
Livorno38%fair 2.66 · @2.50
2.46Expected goals
1.25Novara xG
1.21Livorno xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Novara 1.3 – 1.2 Livorno expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novara to win✗
40%
2.51
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
Novara (draw no bet)
51%
1.94
–
Asian handicap
Livorno +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.08
First team to score
Novara to score first✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novara / FT Novara✗
21%
4.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.35
–
Recent results
Novara – last 6
DLWLWL
31 Aug
vs Folgore Caratese
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Juventus U23
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Alcione
1–0
W
5 Aug
@ Virtus Entella
1–2
L
1 Aug
@ Sampdoria
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Cittadella
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Livorno – last 6
DWWDWW
29 Aug
@ Pineto
0–0
D
24 Aug
vs Torres
2–1
W
15 Aug
vs Reggiana
3–1
W
8 Aug
vs Empoli
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Cittadella Vis Modena
2–1
W
26 Apr
@ Pontedera
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novara and Livorno.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Novara vs Livorno?
On our numbers Novara have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Livorno 38%.
How many goals will there be in Novara vs Livorno?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novara vs Livorno?
Our predicted score is Novara 1–1 Livorno, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Novara vs Livorno?
Novara vs Livorno (Coppa Italia Serie C) kicks off on Thursday 3 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Silvio Piola.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cittadella4
Renate1
Trento0
Desenzano Calvina1