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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Migori Youth v Police: numbers & prediction

FKF Premier League · Kenya

Migori Youth

WDDWW
1–1
FT

Police

WDLDD
Migori Youth 20%Draw 24%Police 56% Expected goals 0.69 – 1.43
65%
Betarazi pick

Under 2.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2

Value bet: Police to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultPolice to win ✗56% · @1.91
Double chancePolice or draw ✓80% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · fair 1.74
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.81

Migori Youth vs Police: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Migori Youth welcome Police for a FKF Premier League fixture on Sunday 11 October (13:00 WAT).

Current form

Migori Youth, last 5: WDDWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Mombasa Elite, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Police, last 5: WDLDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Shabana, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Migori Youth, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.2 for Police.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Migori Youth 0.7 xG, Police 1.4 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Migori Youth 20%, draw 24%, Police 56%.
  • Lower-risk option: Police or draw (80%) at 1.17.
  • Price worth noting: Police to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Migori Youth 0–1 Police. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Migori Youth20%fair 5.11 · @4.20
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @2.88
Police56%fair 1.77 · @1.91
2.12Expected goals
0.69Migori Youth xG
1.43Police xG
42%Both score
35%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–117%
0–212%
0–012%
1–112%
1–28%
1–08%

From our goals model: Migori Youth 0.7 – 1.4 Police expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPolice to win ✗56%1.771.91 ▲
Double chancePolice or draw ✓80%1.241.17
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✗58%1.74–
Draw no betPolice (draw no bet)74%1.35–
Asian handicapMigori Youth +1 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.61–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓62%1.60–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓65%1.551.44
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84%1.20–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓94%1.07–
First team to scorePolice to score first59%1.68–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓47%2.12–
Half-time / full-timeHT Police / FT Police ✗33%3.05–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17%5.81–

Recent results

Migori Youth – last 6

WDDWWW
2 Octvs Mombasa Elite2–0W
11 Sepvs Mathare United0–0D
13 Jun@ 3K1–1D
7 Junvs Equity Bank2–1W
1 Jun@ Kisumu All Stars1–0W
27 Mayvs MCF2–1W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Police – last 6

WDLDDD
2 Oct@ Shabana1–0W
11 Sep@ Mombasa Elite0–0D
14 Jun@ Tusker1–2L
31 Mayvs Homeboyz1–1D
27 Mayvs Kariobangi Sharks1–1D
24 May@ Nairobi United0–0D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Migori Youth and Police.

Migori Youth vs Police head-to-head page →

FKF Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1GOR Mahia6411+413
2KCB6411+413
3AFC Leopards6240+310
4Kenya Police6231+19
5Shabana6231+19
6Mara Sugar623109
73K6231-19
8Murang'a SEAL6222+28
9Bandari614107
10Posta Rangers FC6213-47
11Tusker4202+26
12Migori Youth5131+16
13APS Bomet6132+16
14Ulinzi Stars6132-26
15Nairobi United6051-15
16Mathare United6123-25
17Homeboyz5122-25
18Mombasa Elite6015-71

More FKF Premier League predictions

League hub
FT Ulinzi Stars0 Tusker2 115%4.33X24%2.90262%1.83 0.6–1.5xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 66%@1.40 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Migori Youth vs Police?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Migori Youth vs Police?

On our numbers Migori Youth have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Police 56%.

How many goals will there be in Migori Youth vs Police?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Migori Youth vs Police?

Our predicted score is Migori Youth 0–1 Police, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is Migori Youth vs Police?

Migori Youth vs Police (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.