Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
2
Value bet: Tusker to win @ 1.83 – our chance 62% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultTusker to win ✓62% · @1.83
Double chanceTusker or draw ✓85% · @1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.68
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗19% · fair 5.20
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ulinzi Stars welcome Tusker for a FKF Premier League fixture on Sunday 11 October (12:00 WAT). In the table, Ulinzi Stars are 14th, lower half, on 6 points after 6 matches; Tusker are 11th (lower half) with 6. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ulinzi Stars, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Mathare United, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Tusker, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Mara Sugar, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (27 May 2026) it ended Ulinzi Stars 2–0 Tusker. The last 2 head-to-heads: Ulinzi Stars 1 win, Tusker 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 2.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ulinzi Stars 0.6 xG, Tusker 1.5 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ulinzi Stars 15%, draw 24%, Tusker 62%.
Lower-risk option: Tusker or draw (85%) at 1.14.
Price worth noting: Tusker to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (66%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ulinzi Stars 0–1 Tusker. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ulinzi Stars15%fair 6.77 · @4.33
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @2.90
Tusker62%fair 1.63 · @1.83
2.05Expected goals
0.56Ulinzi Stars xG
1.50Tusker xG
41%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–119%
0–214%
0–013%
1–111%
1–28%
0–37%
From our goals model: Ulinzi Stars 0.6 – 1.5 Tusker expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
On our numbers Ulinzi Stars have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Tusker 62%.
How many goals will there be in Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
Our predicted score is Ulinzi Stars 0–1 Tusker, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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