Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.00 – our chance 53% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +59%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✓53% · @3.00
Double chancePolice or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.84
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✓12% · fair 8.30
Mombasa Elite vs Police: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mombasa Elite welcome Police for a FKF Premier League fixture on Friday 11 September (13:00 WAT).
Current form
Mombasa Elite, last 5: DWLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Naivas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Police, last 5: LDDDD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Tusker, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Mombasa Elite, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Police.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mombasa Elite 0.9 xG, Police 1.2 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mombasa Elite 17%, draw 53%, Police 30%.
Lower-risk option: Police or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Police or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mombasa Elite 0–1 Police. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mombasa Elite17%fair 5.97 · @3.60
Draw53%fair 1.88 · @3.00
Police30%fair 3.32 · @2.00
2.12Expected goals
0.93Mombasa Elite xG
1.19Police xG
46%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–012%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Mombasa Elite 0.9 – 1.2 Police expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
53%
1.88
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Police or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
–
Draw no bet
Police (draw no bet)
64%
1.56
–
Asian handicap
Mombasa Elite +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Police to score first✗
49%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Police / FT Police✗
24%
4.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–0✓
12%
8.30
–
Recent results
Mombasa Elite – last 6
DWLDWW
13 Jun
@ Naivas
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Nzoia Sugar
1–0
W
1 Jun
@ Luanda Villa
0–1
L
27 May
vs 3K
0–0
D
24 May
@ Mwatate United
1–0
W
17 May
vs Nairobi City Stars
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Police – last 6
LDDDDW
14 Jun
@ Tusker
1–2
L
31 May
vs Homeboyz
1–1
D
27 May
vs Kariobangi Sharks
1–1
D
24 May
@ Nairobi United
0–0
D
10 May
@ GOR Mahia
1–1
D
6 May
vs Murang'a SEAL
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mombasa Elite and Police.
What is the prediction for Mombasa Elite vs Police?
Our pick is Police or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Mombasa Elite vs Police?
On our numbers Mombasa Elite have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 53% and Police 30%.
How many goals will there be in Mombasa Elite vs Police?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mombasa Elite vs Police?
Our predicted score is Mombasa Elite 0–1 Police, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Mombasa Elite vs Police?
Mombasa Elite vs Police (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
