Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSanta Lucía to win ✗58% · @1.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✗81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.20
Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Santa Lucía welcome Zurrieq for a Challenge League fixture on Sunday 11 October (16:30 WAT). In the table, Santa Lucía are 13th, lower half, on 6 points after 7 matches; Zurrieq are 8th (upper half) with 10.
Current form
Santa Lucía, last 5: DDDDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with St. Andrews, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Zurrieq, last 5: LLWDD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Victoria Hotspurs, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Santa Lucía 1.5 xG, Zurrieq 0.7 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 54% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Santa Lucía 58%, draw 19%, Zurrieq 23%.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Santa Lucía to win (58%, odds 1.70). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santa Lucía 1–0 Zurrieq. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Santa Lucía58%fair 1.74 · @1.70
Draw19%fair 5.14 · @3.75
Zurrieq23%fair 4.37 · @3.70
2.20Expected goals
1.45Santa Lucía xG
0.75Zurrieq xG
44%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
1–112%
2–012%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Santa Lucía 1.5 – 0.7 Zurrieq expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Lucía to win✗
58%
1.74
1.70
Double chance
Either team to win✗
81%
1.24
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
–
Draw no bet
Santa Lucía (draw no bet)
72%
1.40
–
Asian handicap
Zurrieq +1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.87
2.10 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Santa Lucía to score first✗
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santa Lucía / FT Santa Lucía✗
32%
3.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.20
–
Recent results
Santa Lucía – last 5
DDDDD
18 Sep
@ St. Andrews
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Vittoriosa Stars
0–0
D
6 Apr
@ Mgarr United
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Vittoriosa Stars
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Zebbug Rangers
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Zurrieq – last 6
LLWDDW
19 Sep
vs Victoria Hotspurs
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ Sirens
0–1
L
1 Apr
vs Marsa
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs Zebbug Rangers
3–3
D
4 Mar
vs Naxxar Lions
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Gudja United
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Lucía and Zurrieq.
What is the prediction for Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq?
Our pick is Santa Lucía to win with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq?
On our numbers Santa Lucía have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Zurrieq 23%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq?
Our predicted score is Santa Lucía 1–0 Zurrieq, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq?
Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq (Challenge League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
