Boca Juniors 56%Draw 26%Sao Paulo 19%Expected goals 1.41 – 0.67
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 51% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBoca Juniors to win ✓56% · @1.90
Double chanceBoca Juniors or draw ✓81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.06
Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 9 September the CONMEBOL Sudamericana brings Boca Juniors against Sao Paulo at Estadio Alberto J. Armando. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT.
Current form
Boca Juniors, last 5: DDWDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Gimnasia M., away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Sao Paulo, last 5: WWLWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Atletico-MG, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Boca Juniors 1.4 xG, Sao Paulo 0.7 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Boca Juniors 56%, draw 26%, Sao Paulo 19%.
Lower-risk option: Boca Juniors or draw (81%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Boca Juniors 1–0 Sao Paulo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Boca Juniors56%fair 1.79 · @1.90
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.10
Sao Paulo19%fair 5.38 · @4.55
2.07Expected goals
1.41Boca Juniors xG
0.67Sao Paulo xG
51%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
0–013%
2–012%
1–112%
0–18%
2–18%
From our goals model: Boca Juniors 1.4 – 0.7 Sao Paulo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Boca Juniors to win✓
56%
1.79
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Boca Juniors or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
Boca Juniors (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Sao Paulo +1 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
1.04
First team to score
Boca Juniors to score first✓
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Boca Juniors / FT Boca Juniors✗
33%
3.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.06
–
Recent results
Boca Juniors – last 6
DDWDWD
5 Sep
@ Gimnasia M.
2–2
D
3 Sep
@ Velez Sarsfield
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Lanus
1–0
W
24 Aug
@ Racing Club
1–1
D
18 Aug
@ Deportivo Recoleta
4–0
W
16 Aug
@ Platense
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sao Paulo – last 6
WWLWDD
5 Sep
vs Atletico-MG
2–0
W
30 Aug
vs RB Bragantino
2–1
W
23 Aug
@ Chapecoense-sc
0–1
L
19 Aug
vs Bolívar
3–1
W
16 Aug
vs Coritiba
1–1
D
12 Aug
@ Bolívar
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Boca Juniors and Sao Paulo.
What is the prediction for Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo?
On our numbers Boca Juniors have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sao Paulo 19%.
How many goals will there be in Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo?
Our predicted score is Boca Juniors 1–0 Sao Paulo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo?
Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alberto J. Armando.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Santos2
Atletico-MG0