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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Santos v Atletico-MG: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · South America · MRV Arena

Santos

WDWLD
2–0
FT

Atletico-MG

LWWDD
Santos 44%Draw 23%Atletico-MG 33% Expected goals 1.36 – 1.12
77%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.20Odds

Picks by market

ResultSantos to win ✓44% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.53

Santos vs Atletico-MG: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

23:00 WAT, Wednesday 9 September: Santos v Atletico-MG in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, played at MRV Arena. In the table, Santos are 2nd on 7 points after 6 matches; Atletico-MG are 1st with 10. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Santos, last 5: WDWLD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Internacional, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Atletico-MG, last 5: LWWDD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Sao Paulo, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (12 Apr 2026) it ended Santos 1–0 Atletico-MG.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Santos 1.4 xG, Atletico-MG 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 53%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Santos 44%, draw 23%, Atletico-MG 33%.
  • GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.95.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santos 1–1 Atletico-MG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Santos44%fair 2.27 · @2.32
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @3.10
Atletico-MG33%fair 3.07 · @3.15
2.48Expected goals
1.36Santos xG
1.12Atletico-MG xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%

From our goals model: Santos 1.4 – 1.1 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSantos to win ✓44%2.272.32
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77%1.311.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗53%1.891.95
Draw no betSantos (draw no bet) ✓57%1.74–
Asian handicapAtletico-MG +1 (Asian handicap) ✗75%1.34–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓69%1.461.42
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓56%1.771.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77%1.301.20
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.121.06
First team to scoreSantos to score first ✓50%1.99–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗44%2.26–
Half-time / full-timeHT Santos / FT Santos ✓25%4.06–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.53–

Recent results

Santos – last 6

WDWLDD
6 Sep@ Internacional3–2W
3 Sepvs Palmeiras0–0D
30 Aug@ Corinthians1–0W
27 Aug@ Palmeiras0–3L
23 Augvs Mirassol1–1D
20 Aug@ Macara0–0D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Atletico-MG – last 6

LWWDDD
5 Sep@ Sao Paulo0–2L
2 Sepvs Cruzeiro2–1W
29 Augvs Vitoria2–1W
26 Aug@ Cruzeiro1–1D
22 Aug@ Internacional0–0D
19 Augvs RB Bragantino2–2D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

12 Apr 2026Santos v Atletico-MG1–0
Santos vs Atletico-MG head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Sudamericana table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Atletico-MG6312+210
2Cienciano6222-28
3Juventud6141+37
4Puerto Cabello6213-37

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions

League hub
FT Boca Juniors1 Sao Paulo0 156%1.90X26%3.10219%4.55 1.4–0.7xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 65%@1.48 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Santos vs Atletico-MG?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Santos vs Atletico-MG?

On our numbers Santos have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Atletico-MG 33%.

How many goals will there be in Santos vs Atletico-MG?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Santos vs Atletico-MG?

Our predicted score is Santos 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Santos vs Atletico-MG?

Santos vs Atletico-MG (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at MRV Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.