Al-Gharafa 30%Draw 21%Esteghlal FC 48%Expected goals 1.29 – 1.71
62%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Esteghlal FC to win @ 2.30 – our chance 48% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultEsteghlal FC to win ✓48% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 10.66
Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Al-Gharafa welcome Esteghlal FC to Thani bin Jassim Stadium for a AFC Champions League fixture on Monday 12 October (19:15 WAT). In the table, Al-Gharafa are 16th, in the drop zone, on 0 points after 4 matches; Esteghlal FC are 3rd (among the top four) with 9.
Current form
Al-Gharafa, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Al Wakrah, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Esteghlal FC, last 5: DWWDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Tractor Sazi, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Esteghlal FC, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.7 for Al-Gharafa.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Al-Gharafa 1.3 xG, Esteghlal FC 1.7 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Al-Gharafa 30%, draw 21%, Esteghlal FC 48%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Esteghlal FC to win @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 48%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (62%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Al-Gharafa 1–1 Esteghlal FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Al-Gharafa30%fair 3.30 · @2.62
Draw21%fair 4.70 · @3.40
Esteghlal FC48%fair 2.07 · @2.30
3.00Expected goals
1.29Al-Gharafa xG
1.71Esteghlal FC xG
62%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
0–27%
2–17%
1–06%
From our goals model: Al-Gharafa 1.3 – 1.7 Esteghlal FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Esteghlal FC to win✓
48%
2.07
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.53
Draw no bet
Esteghlal FC (draw no bet)✓
61%
1.63
–
Asian handicap
Al-Gharafa +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Esteghlal FC to score first✓
54%
1.85
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.54
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Esteghlal FC / FT Esteghlal FC✓
29%
3.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
10.66
–
Recent results
Al-Gharafa – last 6
LWLDLL
8 Oct
@ Al Wakrah
2–3
L
1 Oct
vs Al Mesaimeer
4–2
W
15 Sep
@ Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1–2
L
11 Sep
vs Lusail City
0–0
D
5 Sep
@ Al Sadd
1–4
L
1 Sep
@ Al Sadd
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Esteghlal FC – last 6
DWWDDD
8 Oct
@ Tractor Sazi
1–1
D
14 Sep
vs Al Sadd
3–0
W
10 Sep
vs Paykan
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Aluminium Arak
0–0
D
2 Sep
vs Persepolis FC
1–1
D
28 Aug
@ Foolad FC
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al-Gharafa and Esteghlal FC.
What is the prediction for Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC?
On our numbers Al-Gharafa have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Esteghlal FC 48%.
How many goals will there be in Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC?
Our predicted score is Al-Gharafa 1–1 Esteghlal FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC?
Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC (AFC Champions League) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Thani bin Jassim Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
