Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
1
Value bet: Cerro to win @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCerro to win ✗50% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.93
Cerro vs Cerrito: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cerrito travel to face Cerro on Thursday 10 September in the Copa Uruguay – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT.
Current form
Cerro, last 5: WDDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Racing Montevideo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Cerrito, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Paysandu, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Cerro, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.7 for Cerrito.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cerro 1.3 xG, Cerrito 0.8 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cerro 50%, draw 23%, Cerrito 27%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Cerro to win @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (64%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerro 1–1 Cerrito. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cerro50%fair 2.01 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @3.00
Cerrito27%fair 3.73 · @3.25
2.15Expected goals
1.30Cerro xG
0.85Cerrito xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–113%
0–012%
2–010%
0–110%
2–18%
From our goals model: Cerro 1.3 – 0.8 Cerrito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cerro to win✗
50%
2.01
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.93
Draw no bet
Cerro (draw no bet)✗
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Cerrito +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Cerro to score first✗
54%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cerro / FT Cerro✗
27%
3.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.93
–
Recent results
Cerro – last 6
WDDLWW
6 Sep
vs Racing Montevideo
1–0
W
1 Sep
@ Wanderers
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Boston River
1–1
D
21 Aug
@ Liverpool Montevideo
0–4
L
15 Aug
vs Albion FC
2–1
W
9 Aug
@ Danubio
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Cerrito – last 6
LLLWDL
5 Sep
vs Paysandu
1–2
L
2 Sep
vs Deportivo Maldonado
0–2
L
29 Aug
@ Sportivo Huracan
1–2
L
22 Aug
vs Uruguay Montevideo
3–0
W
14 Aug
vs Oriental
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Colón
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro and Cerrito.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Cerro vs Cerrito?
On our numbers Cerro have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cerrito 27%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Cerrito?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro vs Cerrito?
Our predicted score is Cerro 1–1 Cerrito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Cerro vs Cerrito?
Cerro vs Cerrito (Copa Uruguay) kicks off on Thursday 10 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Deportivo Maldonado4
Wanderers1