Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✓60% · @1.75
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.08
Danubio vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 5 September the Primera División Apertura brings Danubio against Penarol. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Danubio are 14th, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 13 matches; Penarol are 5th (upper half) with 22. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Danubio, last 5: LLWDD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Atletico Torque, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Penarol, last 5: DLWDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Atenas, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Penarol, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Danubio.
Head to head
When they last met (8 Mar 2026) it ended Penarol 1–1 Danubio.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Danubio 0.7 xG, Penarol 1.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Danubio 17%, draw 23%, Penarol 60%.
Lower-risk option: Penarol or draw (83%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Penarol to win (60%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.66, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Danubio 0–1 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Danubio17%fair 6.00 · @4.60
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.30
Penarol60%fair 1.66 · @1.75
2.27Expected goals
0.68Danubio xG
1.59Penarol xG
50%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–116%
0–213%
1–111%
0–010%
1–29%
1–07%
From our goals model: Danubio 0.7 – 1.6 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Penarol to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Danubio vs Penarol?
On our numbers Danubio have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Penarol 60%.
How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Danubio 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Danubio vs Penarol?
Danubio vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
