Liverpool 61%Draw 23%Atletico Madrid 16%Expected goals 2.04 – 0.98
84%
Betarazi pick
Liverpool or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultLiverpool to win ✓61% · @1.71
Double chanceLiverpool or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.05
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 9 September the UEFA Champions League brings Liverpool against Atletico Madrid at Anfield. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Liverpool are 8th, upper half, on 9 points after 4 matches; Atletico Madrid are 23rd (lower half) with 4.
Current form
Liverpool, last 5: WDDDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Ipswich, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Atletico Madrid, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Athletic Club, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Atletico Madrid, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Liverpool.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Liverpool 2.0 xG, Atletico Madrid 1.0 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Liverpool 61%, draw 23%, Atletico Madrid 16%.
Lower-risk option: Liverpool or draw (84%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Liverpool or draw (84%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Liverpool 2–0 Atletico Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Liverpool61%fair 1.64 · @1.71
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.95
Atletico Madrid16%fair 6.13 · @4.33
3.02Expected goals
2.04Liverpool xG
0.98Atletico Madrid xG
61%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Liverpool 2.0 – 1.0 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool to win✓
61%
1.64
1.71
Double chance
Liverpool or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.62
Draw no bet
Liverpool (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.27
–
Asian handicap
Liverpool -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
First team to score
Liverpool to score first
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Liverpool ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool / FT Liverpool✗
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.05
–
Recent results
Liverpool – last 6
WDDDLL
4 Sep
@ Ipswich
2–0
W
29 Aug
vs Nottingham Forest
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Newcastle
2–2
D
16 Aug
vs Como
0–0
D
9 Aug
vs Monaco
2–3
L
2 Aug
vs Leeds
2–4
L
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
LWDWWL
5 Sep
@ Athletic Club
0–3
L
29 Aug
@ Sevilla
3–1
W
23 Aug
vs Villarreal
2–2
D
19 Aug
vs Malaga
2–0
W
14 Aug
@ Marseille
2–1
W
9 Aug
@ Manchester City
1–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Liverpool or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Liverpool have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Atletico Madrid 16%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Liverpool 2–0 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Anfield.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
