Napoli v Arsenal Prediction & Expected Goals (9 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultArsenal to win ✓65% · @1.67

Double chanceArsenal or draw ✓87% · @1.15

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.91

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.30

Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓14% · fair 7.38

Napoli vs Arsenal: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

20:00 WAT, Wednesday 9 September: Napoli v Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League, played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. In the table, Napoli are 27th, lower half, on 3 points after 4 matches; Arsenal are 3rd (among the top four) with 10.

Current form

Napoli, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Inter, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.

Arsenal, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Chelsea, at home. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Napoli 0.7 xG, Arsenal 1.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 48%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Napoli 13%, draw 22%, Arsenal 65%.
Lower-risk option: Arsenal or draw (87%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Arsenal to win @1.67 – the bookmaker implies 60%, our ratings say 65%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Napoli 0–2 Arsenal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Napoli13%fair 7.90 · @5.10

Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.65

Arsenal65%fair 1.53 · @1.67

2.66Expected goals

0.73Napoli xG

1.93Arsenal xG

48%Both score

50%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–114%

0–213%

1–110%

1–29%

0–38%

0–07%

From our goals model: Napoli 0.7 – 1.9 Arsenal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Arsenal to win ✓	65%	1.53	1.67 ▲
Double chance	Arsenal or draw ✓	87%	1.14	1.15
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	52%	1.93	1.91
Draw no bet	Arsenal (draw no bet) ✓	84%	1.19	–
Asian handicap	Arsenal -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	66%	1.52	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	73%	1.36	1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	50%	1.98	1.87
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	72%	1.40	1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	86%	1.16	1.11
First team to score	Arsenal to score first ✓	68%	1.48	–
Half-time result	Arsenal ahead at half-time ✗	47%	2.14	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Arsenal / FT Arsenal ✗	42%	2.37	–
Correct score	Correct score 0–1 ✓	14%	7.38	–

Napoli – last 6

LLWWDW

5 Sep	@ Inter	2–3	L
30 Aug	vs Como	1–2	L
22 Aug	@ Genoa	2–0	W
12 Aug	vs Aris Thessalonikis	6–2	W
8 Aug	vs Celta Vigo	1–1	D
5 Aug	vs Osasuna	2–1	W

2.3Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

83%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Arsenal – last 6

WWWWDL

6 Sep	vs Chelsea	2–1	W
31 Aug	@ Aston Villa	1–0	W
21 Aug	vs Coventry	3–0	W
16 Aug	vs Manchester City	3–0	W
12 Aug	vs Como	1–1	D
9 Aug	vs Borussia Dortmund	2–3	L

2.0Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0

Team

Pts

+15

+13

-1

-5

-1

-1

-1

-5

-1

-5

-6

-6

-6

-6

-7

-12

-4

-6

-16

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Napoli vs Arsenal?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Napoli vs Arsenal?

On our numbers Napoli have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Arsenal 65%.

How many goals will there be in Napoli vs Arsenal?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Arsenal?

Our predicted score is Napoli 0–2 Arsenal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Napoli vs Arsenal?

Napoli vs Arsenal (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Napoli v Arsenal: numbers & prediction