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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Gremio v Atletico-MG: numbers & prediction

Copa Do Brasil · Brazil

Gremio

WWLDD
2–0
FT

Atletico-MG

LLLWW
Gremio 42%Draw 25%Atletico-MG 34% Expected goals 1.12 – 0.96
53%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.90 · bookmaker 1.91 · Lost ✗

4/10Rating
1.91Odds
1

Value bet: Gremio to win @ 2.62 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultGremio to win ✓42% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 13.33

Gremio vs Atletico-MG: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Gremio welcome Atletico-MG for a Copa Do Brasil fixture on Sunday 1 November (22:30 WAT).

Current form

Gremio, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Atletico Paranaense, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Atletico-MG, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cruzeiro, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (16 Aug 2026) it ended Atletico-MG 3–0 Gremio. The last 2 head-to-heads: Gremio 1 win, Atletico-MG 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.0 goals and saw GG land 1 time.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Gremio 1.1 xG, Atletico-MG 1.0 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Gremio 42%, draw 25%, Atletico-MG 34%.
  • GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.91.
  • Price worth noting: Gremio to win @2.62 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 42%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (53%, odds 1.91). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gremio 1–1 Atletico-MG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Gremio42%fair 2.40 · @2.62
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @2.90
Atletico-MG34%fair 2.97 · @2.75
2.08Expected goals
1.12Gremio xG
0.96Atletico-MG xG
53%Both score
34%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%

From our goals model: Gremio 1.1 – 1.0 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultGremio to win ✓42%2.402.62 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75%1.331.36
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗53%1.901.91
Draw no betGremio (draw no bet) ✓55%1.81–
Asian handicapAtletico-MG +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗61%1.64–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓62%1.63–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓66%1.53–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84%1.19–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓94%1.06–
First team to scoreGremio to score first ✓47%2.13–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗49%2.05–
Half-time / full-timeHT Gremio / FT Gremio ✓22%4.56–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%13.33–

Recent results

Gremio – last 6

WWLDDD
30 Octvs Atletico Paranaense2–0W
26 Oct@ Coritiba1–0W
18 Octvs Cruzeiro2–4L
11 Octvs Internacional1–1D
7 Oct@ Remo1–1D
20 Sepvs Palmeiras0–0D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Atletico-MG – last 6

LLLWWW
29 Octvs Cruzeiro0–1L
27 Oct@ Flamengo2–3L
21 Oct@ Atletico Torque0–2L
17 Octvs Coritiba1–0W
14 Octvs Atletico Torque3–0W
11 Octvs Santos2–1W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

16 Aug 2026Atletico-MG v Gremio3–0
26 Feb 2026Gremio v Atletico-MG2–1
Gremio vs Atletico-MG head-to-head page →

More Copa Do Brasil predictions

League hub
FT Palmeiras1 Vasco DA Gama0 158%1.70X22%3.20220%5.00 1.8–0.9xG 1Palmeiras to win 58%@1.70 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Gremio vs Atletico-MG?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.

Who will win Gremio vs Atletico-MG?

On our numbers Gremio have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atletico-MG 34%.

How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Atletico-MG?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Atletico-MG?

Our predicted score is Gremio 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is Gremio vs Atletico-MG?

Gremio vs Atletico-MG (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.