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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Colombia v Paraguay: numbers & prediction

Friendlies · World · Sports Illustrated Stadium

Colombia

DDWDW
0–1
FT

Paraguay

WLDDW
Colombia 65%Draw 23%Paraguay 11% Expected goals 2.03 – 0.75
65%
Betarazi pick

Colombia to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗

6/10Rating
1.67Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultColombia to win ✗65% · @1.67
Double chanceColombia or draw ✗89% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.10
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.42

Colombia vs Paraguay: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Colombia welcome Paraguay to Sports Illustrated Stadium for a Friendlies fixture on Saturday 3 October (01:00 WAT).

Current form

Colombia, last 5: DDWDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Mexico, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Paraguay, last 5: WLDDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Bolivia, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Colombia, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Paraguay.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Colombia 2.0 xG, Paraguay 0.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Colombia 65%, draw 23%, Paraguay 11%.
  • Lower-risk option: Colombia or draw (89%) at 1.17.
  • GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.10.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 52%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Colombia to win (65%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.53, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Colombia 2–0 Paraguay. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Colombia65%fair 1.53 · @1.67
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.25
Paraguay11%fair 8.96 · @4.80
2.78Expected goals
2.03Colombia xG
0.75Paraguay xG
52%Both score
53%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–013%
1–013%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–16%

From our goals model: Colombia 2.0 – 0.8 Paraguay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultColombia to win ✗65%1.531.67 ▲
Double chanceColombia or draw ✗89%1.131.17
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗52%1.922.10 ▲
Draw no betColombia (draw no bet) ✗85%1.17–
Asian handicapColombia -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗67%1.49–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77%1.31–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗53%1.90–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓70%1.44–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓85%1.18–
First team to scoreColombia to score first ✗68%1.46–
Half-time resultColombia ahead at half-time ✗48%2.09–
Half-time / full-timeHT Colombia / FT Colombia ✗43%2.30–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.42–

Recent results

Colombia – last 6

DDWDWW
27 Sep@ Mexico1–1D
7 Jul@ Switzerland0–0D
4 Julvs Ghana1–0W
28 Junvs Portugal0–0D
24 Junvs Congo DR1–0W
18 Jun@ Uzbekistan3–1W
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Paraguay – last 6

WLDDWL
27 Sep@ Bolivia2–0W
4 Julvs France0–1L
29 Jun@ Germany1–1D
26 Junvs Australia0–0D
20 Jun@ Türkiye1–0W
13 Jun@ USA1–4L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Colombia and Paraguay.

Colombia vs Paraguay head-to-head page →

More Friendlies predictions

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FT Russia6 Namibia0 178%1.12X17%7.3026%22.00 2.2–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 63%@1.69 ✗
FT Portugal U193 Denmark U193 159%1.62X21%3.50220%4.60 2.5–1.5xG GGBoth teams to score 63%@1.75 ✓
FT Canada2 Peru0 163%1.57X21%3.60216%5.00 1.8–0.7xG 1Canada to win 63%@1.57 ✓
FT Ivory Coast0 Cameroon1 157%1.75X23%3.10219%4.50 1.7–0.8xG 1Ivory Coast to win 57%@1.75 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Colombia vs Paraguay?

Our pick is Colombia to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.

Who will win Colombia vs Paraguay?

On our numbers Colombia have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Paraguay 11%.

How many goals will there be in Colombia vs Paraguay?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Colombia vs Paraguay?

Our predicted score is Colombia 2–0 Paraguay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Colombia vs Paraguay?

Colombia vs Paraguay (Friendlies) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Sports Illustrated Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.