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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

China v Tajikistan: numbers & prediction

Friendlies · World · Longxing Football Stadium

China

LLWDW
0–1
FT

Tajikistan

LLDWD
China 60%Draw 25%Tajikistan 14% Expected goals 2.10 – 1.00
60%
Betarazi pick

China to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗

5/10Rating
1.62Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultChina to win ✗60% · @1.62
Double chanceChina or draw ✗86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.07

China vs Tajikistan: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

12:35 WAT, Tuesday 6 October: China v Tajikistan in the Friendlies, played at Longxing Football Stadium.

Current form

China, last 5: LLWDW Their latest outing: 0–5 defeat to Palestine, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 5. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Tajikistan, last 5: LLDWD Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Palestine, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.6 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give China 2.1 xG, Tajikistan 1.0 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 56% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – China 60%, draw 25%, Tajikistan 14%.
  • Lower-risk option: China or draw (86%) at 1.17.
  • GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.91.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was China to win (60%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: China 2–0 Tajikistan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

China60%fair 1.66 · @1.62
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.50
Tajikistan14%fair 6.90 · @4.80
3.10Expected goals
2.10China xG
1.00Tajikistan xG
56%Both score
60%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%

From our goals model: China 2.1 – 1.0 Tajikistan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultChina to win ✗60%1.661.62
Double chanceChina or draw ✗86%1.171.17
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗56%1.781.91 ▲
Draw no betChina (draw no bet) ✗81%1.24–
Asian handicapChina -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗63%1.59–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗82%1.23–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗60%1.67–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓62%1.60–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓80%1.25–
First team to scoreChina to score first ✗65%1.54–
Half-time resultChina ahead at half-time ✗46%2.17–
Half-time / full-timeHT China / FT China ✗40%2.47–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.07–

Recent results

China – last 6

LLWDWL
2 Octvs Palestine0–5L
27 Sepvs New Zealand0–3L
24 Sepvs Maldives3–0W
9 Junvs Thailand0–0D
5 Jun@ Singapore2–1W
31 Marvs Cameroon0–2L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Tajikistan – last 5

LLDWD
28 Sepvs Palestine2–4L
23 Sep@ Azerbaijan0–1L
9 Junvs India1–1D
5 Junvs India3–1W
31 Marvs Philippines1–1D
1.4Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between China and Tajikistan.

China vs Tajikistan head-to-head page →

More Friendlies predictions

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FT South Korea2 Uzbekistan0 157%1.75X24%3.30219%4.20 2.1–1.2xG 1XSouth Korea or draw 81%@1.20 ✓
FT Denmark U191 Netherlands U191 143%2.25X22%3.20235%2.62 1.8–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 67%@1.55 ✓
FT India1 Uruguay6 16%51.00X12%17.00281%1.03 0.4–2.2xG NGNot both teams to score 59%@1.30 ✗
FT Portugal U194 Austria U190 158%1.75X20%3.40222%3.70 2.4–1.4xG GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.75 ✗
FT Russia3 Nigeria3 168%1.58X22%3.75211%5.70 2.0–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.28 ✓
FT Jordan0 Venezuela0 158%1.95X24%3.00219%3.70 1.8–0.9xG 1XJordan or draw 81%@1.25 ✓
FT Algeria2 Niger1 174%1.22X19%5.5027%11.00 1.7–0.3xG 1Algeria to win 74%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for China vs Tajikistan?

Our pick is China to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.

Who will win China vs Tajikistan?

On our numbers China have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tajikistan 14%.

How many goals will there be in China vs Tajikistan?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for China vs Tajikistan?

Our predicted score is China 2–0 Tajikistan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.

When is China vs Tajikistan?

China vs Tajikistan (Friendlies) kicks off on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at 12:35 (West Africa Time) at Longxing Football Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.