Japan U23 74%Draw 16%Thailand U23 10%Expected goals 3.52 – 1.48
61%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 2.25 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
2.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultJapan U23 to win ✓74% · @1.17
Double chanceJapan U23 or draw ✓90% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @2.25
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗7% · fair 13.78
Japan U23 vs Thailand U23: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Japan U23 welcome Thailand U23 to Toyota Stadium for a Asian Games fixture on Wednesday 23 September (11:30 WAT). In the table, Japan U23 are 1st on 9 points after 3 matches; Thailand U23 are 2nd with 6. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Thailand U23, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Hong Kong U23, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Japan U23 3.5 xG, Thailand U23 1.5 xG – a total near 5.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 88% and GG at 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Japan U23 74%, draw 16%, Thailand U23 10%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 2.25.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (61%, odds 2.25 – longer than our fair 1.64, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Japan U23 3–1 Thailand U23. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Japan U2374%fair 1.35 · @1.17
Draw16%fair 6.40 · @6.00
Thailand U2310%fair 9.71 · @13.00
5.00Expected goals
3.52Japan U23 xG
1.48Thailand U23 xG
61%Both score
88%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
3–17%
4–16%
2–16%
3–25%
3–05%
4–25%
From our goals model: Japan U23 3.5 – 1.5 Thailand U23 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Japan U23 to win✓
74%
1.35
1.17
Double chance
Japan U23 or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Japan U23 (draw no bet)✓
88%
1.14
–
Asian handicap
Japan U23 -1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Over 4.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
–
First team to score
Japan U23 to score first✓
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
Japan U23 ahead at half-time✓
59%
1.70
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Japan U23 / FT Japan U23✓
54%
1.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
7%
13.78
–
Recent results
Japan U23 – last 2
WW
20 Sep
@ Kyrgyz Republic U23
7–0
W
16 Sep
vs Hong Kong U23
2–0
W
4.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Thailand U23 – last 6
WWLLWD
20 Sep
@ Hong Kong U23
5–1
W
16 Sep
vs Kyrgyz Republic U23
3–2
W
9 Jun
vs UAE U23
2–5
L
6 Jun
vs Korea Republic U23
2–3
L
28 Mar
vs Vietnam U23
1–0
W
25 Mar
@ China PR U23
2–2
D
2.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Japan U23 and Thailand U23.
What is the prediction for Japan U23 vs Thailand U23?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.25.
Who will win Japan U23 vs Thailand U23?
On our numbers Japan U23 have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Thailand U23 10%.
How many goals will there be in Japan U23 vs Thailand U23?
We expect about 5.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Japan U23 vs Thailand U23?
Our predicted score is Japan U23 3–1 Thailand U23, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.0 goals in total.
When is Japan U23 vs Thailand U23?
Japan U23 vs Thailand U23 (Asian Games) kicks off on Wednesday 23 September 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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