Value bet: Leones del Norte to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLeones del Norte to win ✓55% · @1.95
Double chanceLeones del Norte or draw ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.51
Leones del Norte vs Libertad: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Libertad travel to face Leones del Norte on Sunday 25 October in the Liga Pro, with Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra the venue – the ball rolls at 22:00 WAT. In the table, Leones del Norte are 9th on 47 points after 36 matches; Libertad are 7th with 51.
Current form
Leones del Norte, last 5: LLDLD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Emelec, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Libertad, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Guayaquil City FC, at home. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Libertad, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for Leones del Norte.
Head to head
When they last met (9 Oct 2026) it ended Libertad 3–0 Leones del Norte. The last 2 head-to-heads: Leones del Norte 1 win, Libertad 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones del Norte 1.5 xG, Libertad 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones del Norte 55%, draw 23%, Libertad 22%.
Lower-risk option: Leones del Norte or draw (78%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Leones del Norte to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Leones del Norte or draw (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones del Norte 1–0 Libertad. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones del Norte55%fair 1.80 · @1.95
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.00
Libertad22%fair 4.53 · @3.40
2.26Expected goals
1.47Leones del Norte xG
0.79Libertad xG
48%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 1.5 – 0.8 Libertad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
Our pick is Leones del Norte or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Libertad 22%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 1–0 Libertad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
Leones del Norte vs Libertad (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
