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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Union Comercio v Molinos El Pirata: numbers & prediction

Segunda División · Peru · Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia

Union Comercio

LWDDW
2–0
FT

Molinos El Pirata

DLDLD
Union Comercio 69%Draw 18%Molinos El Pirata 13% Expected goals 1.84 – 0.59
69%
Betarazi pick

Union Comercio to win

Strong pick · fair odds 1.45 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.33Odds

Picks by market

ResultUnion Comercio to win ✓69% · @1.33
Double chanceUnion Comercio or draw ✓87% · @1.06
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.72
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.17

Union Comercio vs Molinos El Pirata: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 27 September the Segunda División brings Union Comercio against Molinos El Pirata at Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia. Kick-off: 21:15 WAT. In the table, Union Comercio are 1st, leading the league, on 32 points after 16 matches; Molinos El Pirata are 4th (among the top four) with 25.

Current form

Union Comercio, last 5: LWDDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Deportiva Agropecuaria, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Molinos El Pirata, last 5: DLDLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Deportivo Llacuabamba, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Union Comercio, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.5 for Molinos El Pirata.

Head to head

When they last met (17 Aug 2026) it ended Molinos El Pirata 1–2 Union Comercio.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Union Comercio 1.8 xG, Molinos El Pirata 0.6 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 42%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Union Comercio 69%, draw 18%, Molinos El Pirata 13%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Union Comercio to win (69%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Union Comercio 1–0 Molinos El Pirata. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Union Comercio69%fair 1.45 · @1.33
Draw18%fair 5.62 · @4.20
Molinos El Pirata13%fair 7.67 · @7.50
2.43Expected goals
1.84Union Comercio xG
0.59Molinos El Pirata xG
42%Both score
48%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–016%
2–015%
1–110%
3–09%
0–09%
2–19%

From our goals model: Union Comercio 1.8 – 0.6 Molinos El Pirata expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultUnion Comercio to win ✓69%1.451.33
Double chanceUnion Comercio or draw ✓87%1.151.06
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓58%1.72–
Draw no betUnion Comercio (draw no bet) ✓84%1.19–
Asian handicapUnion Comercio -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓67%1.48–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓70%1.43–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓52%1.932.00
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77%1.29–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓90%1.11–
First team to scoreUnion Comercio to score first ✓69%1.45–
Half-time resultUnion Comercio ahead at half-time ✓47%2.14–
Half-time / full-timeHT Union Comercio / FT Union Comercio ✓43%2.33–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16%6.17–

Recent results

Union Comercio – last 6

LWDDWW
13 Sep@ Deportiva Agropecuaria0–1L
6 Sepvs U. San Martin1–0W
30 Aug@ Deportivo Llacuabamba1–1D
23 Augvs Carlos A. Mannucci0–0D
17 Aug@ Molinos El Pirata2–1W
7 Augvs Academia Cantolao4–0W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Molinos El Pirata – last 6

DLDLDL
13 Sep@ Deportivo Llacuabamba0–0D
7 Sepvs Carlos A. Mannucci2–4L
23 Aug@ Academia Cantolao1–1D
17 Augvs Union Comercio1–2L
9 Aug@ Cesar Vallejo1–1D
26 Jul@ Deportiva Agropecuaria1–3L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

17 Aug 2026Molinos El Pirata v Union Comercio1–2
Union Comercio vs Molinos El Pirata head-to-head page →

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Union Comercio16952+1432
2Carlos A. Mannucci16934+1030
3Deportivo Llacuabamba16844+1328
4Molinos El Pirata16745+525
5U. San Martin16736+924
6Deportiva Agropecuaria15564+221
7Cesar Vallejo15546+119
8Academia Cantolao16358-1114
9San Marcos140014-430

More Segunda División predictions

League hub
FT Alianza Universidad2 Bentín Tacna Heroica2 143%2.10X23%3.20235%3.10 1.2–1.0xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 60%@1.57 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Union Comercio vs Molinos El Pirata?

Our pick is Union Comercio to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win Union Comercio vs Molinos El Pirata?

On our numbers Union Comercio have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Molinos El Pirata 13%.

How many goals will there be in Union Comercio vs Molinos El Pirata?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Union Comercio vs Molinos El Pirata?

Our predicted score is Union Comercio 1–0 Molinos El Pirata, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Union Comercio vs Molinos El Pirata?

Union Comercio vs Molinos El Pirata (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.