Truro City 62%Draw 22%Merthyr Town 16%Expected goals 1.73 – 0.72
62%
Betarazi pick
Truro City to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
Picks by market
ResultTruro City to win ✓62% · @1.67
Double chanceTruro City or draw ✓84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.68
Truro City vs Merthyr Town: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Merthyr Town travel to face Truro City on Tuesday 22 September in the FA Cup – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT.
Current form
Truro City, last 5: DDDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Merthyr Town, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Merthyr Town, last 5: DDWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Truro City, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (19 Sep 2026) it ended Merthyr Town 1–1 Truro City.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Truro City 1.7 xG, Merthyr Town 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 44%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Truro City 62%, draw 22%, Merthyr Town 16%.
Lower-risk option: Truro City or draw (84%) at 1.17.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Truro City to win (62%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.61, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Truro City 1–0 Merthyr Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Truro City62%fair 1.61 · @1.67
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.75
Merthyr Town16%fair 6.42 · @4.00
2.45Expected goals
1.73Truro City xG
0.72Merthyr Town xG
44%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Truro City 1.7 – 0.7 Merthyr Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Truro City vs Merthyr Town?
Our pick is Truro City to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Truro City vs Merthyr Town?
On our numbers Truro City have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Merthyr Town 16%.
How many goals will there be in Truro City vs Merthyr Town?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Truro City vs Merthyr Town?
Our predicted score is Truro City 1–0 Merthyr Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Truro City vs Merthyr Town?
Truro City vs Merthyr Town (FA Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 22 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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