Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultRacing Montevideo to win ✗56% · @1.83
Double chanceRacing Montevideo or draw ✗80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.33
Progreso vs Racing Montevideo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Progreso welcome Racing Montevideo to Parque Abraham Paladino for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Saturday 26 September (15:00 WAT). In the table, Progreso are 7th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Racing Montevideo are 6th (upper half) with 19. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Progreso, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Boston River, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Racing Montevideo, last 5: DLWLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Liverpool Montevideo, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Mar 2026) it ended Racing Montevideo 1–1 Progreso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Progreso 0.7 xG, Racing Montevideo 1.5 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Progreso 20%, draw 24%, Racing Montevideo 56%.
Lower-risk option: Racing Montevideo or draw (80%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Racing Montevideo or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Progreso 0–1 Racing Montevideo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Progreso20%fair 5.10 · @3.90
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.10
Racing Montevideo56%fair 1.77 · @1.83
2.23Expected goals
0.74Progreso xG
1.49Racing Montevideo xG
53%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–116%
0–212%
1–112%
0–011%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: Progreso 0.7 – 1.5 Racing Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?
Our pick is Racing Montevideo or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?
On our numbers Progreso have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Racing Montevideo 56%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Progreso 0–1 Racing Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?
Progreso vs Racing Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
