Value bet: Mebrat Hayl to win @ 2.80 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMebrat Hayl to win ✗40% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.50
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.46
Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
13:00 WAT, Friday 16 October: Mebrat Hayl v Negelle Arsi in the Premier League. In the table, Mebrat Hayl are 8th, upper half, on 7 points after 5 matches; Negelle Arsi are 1st (leading the league) with 11.
Current form
Mebrat Hayl, last 5: LWDWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Adama Kenema, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Negelle Arsi, last 5: DLWDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Kedus Giorgis, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Mar 2026) it ended Negelle Arsi 0–2 Mebrat Hayl.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mebrat Hayl 0.8 xG, Negelle Arsi 0.7 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 81% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mebrat Hayl 40%, draw 28%, Negelle Arsi 32%.
GG/NG: NG (57%) at 1.44.
Price worth noting: Mebrat Hayl to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (57%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Negelle Arsi. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mebrat Hayl40%fair 2.50 · @2.80
Draw28%fair 3.56 · @2.40
Negelle Arsi32%fair 3.14 · @2.80
1.50Expected goals
0.82Mebrat Hayl xG
0.68Negelle Arsi xG
43%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–022%
1–018%
0–115%
1–112%
2–08%
0–25%
From our goals model: Mebrat Hayl 0.8 – 0.7 Negelle Arsi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi?
On our numbers Mebrat Hayl have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Negelle Arsi 32%.
How many goals will there be in Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi?
Our predicted score is Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Negelle Arsi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi?
Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
