Value bet: Cerro Largo to win @ 3.75 – our chance 33% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDanubio to win ✓42% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 13.22
Danubio vs Cerro Largo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Danubio welcome Cerro Largo to Gardens of the Hippodrome for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Sunday 4 October (14:00 WAT). In the table, Danubio are 14th, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 13 matches; Cerro Largo are 15th (in the drop zone) with 9. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Danubio, last 5: LDDDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Defensor Sporting, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Cerro Largo, last 5: WLDDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Rentistas, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Cerro Largo, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for Danubio.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Danubio 1.1 xG, Cerro Largo 1.0 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Danubio 42%, draw 24%, Cerro Largo 33%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Cerro Largo to win @3.75 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (50%, odds 1.95). Most likely score in line with that pick: Danubio 1–1 Cerro Largo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Danubio42%fair 2.36 · @2.00
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.00
Cerro Largo33%fair 2.99 · @3.75
2.08Expected goals
1.13Danubio xG
0.95Cerro Largo xG
50%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Danubio 1.1 – 1.0 Cerro Largo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Danubio to win✓
42%
2.36
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.95
Draw no bet
Danubio (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Cerro Largo +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.63
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
Danubio to score first
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Danubio / FT Danubio✓
22%
4.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
13.22
–
Recent results
Danubio – last 6
LDDDLL
27 Sep
@ Defensor Sporting
0–1
L
24 Sep
vs Penarol
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs Wanderers
1–1
D
13 Sep
@ Juventud
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Penarol
0–4
L
2 Sep
@ Atletico Torque
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Cerro Largo – last 6
WLDDLD
30 Sep
vs Rentistas
1–0
W
26 Sep
vs Club Nacional
0–2
L
13 Sep
vs Central Espanol
0–0
D
9 Sep
vs Defensor Sporting
1–1
D
4 Sep
@ Atletico Torque
1–2
L
30 Aug
vs Liverpool Montevideo
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Danubio and Cerro Largo.
What is the prediction for Danubio vs Cerro Largo?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Danubio vs Cerro Largo?
On our numbers Danubio have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cerro Largo 33%.
How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Cerro Largo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Cerro Largo?
Our predicted score is Danubio 1–1 Cerro Largo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Danubio vs Cerro Largo?
Danubio vs Cerro Largo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Gardens of the Hippodrome.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
