Racing Montevideo v Penarol Prediction & Expected Goals (4 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultPenarol to win ✓47% · @2.05

Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.61

Racing Montevideo vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 4 October the Primera División Apertura brings Racing Montevideo against Penarol at Estadio Centenario. Kick-off: 23:30 WAT. In the table, Racing Montevideo are 6th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Penarol are 5th (upper half) with 22. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Racing Montevideo, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Progreso, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Penarol, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Atletico Torque, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.

Momentum favours Penarol, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.7 for Racing Montevideo.

Head to head

When they last met (12 Jul 2026) it ended Racing Montevideo 1–1 Penarol. The last 2 head-to-heads: Racing Montevideo 1 win, Penarol 0, draws 1. Those games averaged 2.5 goals and saw GG land 2 times.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Racing Montevideo 1.0 xG, Penarol 1.3 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Racing Montevideo 29%, draw 24%, Penarol 47%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (53%, odds 2.00 – longer than our fair 1.90, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Racing Montevideo 1–1 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Racing Montevideo29%fair 3.45 · @3.60

Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.00

Penarol47%fair 2.13 · @2.05

2.30Expected goals

0.97Racing Montevideo xG

1.33Penarol xG

53%Both score

40%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–113%

1–113%

0–010%

1–010%

0–29%

1–29%

From our goals model: Racing Montevideo 1.0 – 1.3 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Penarol to win ✓	47%	2.13	2.05
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	76%	1.32	1.33
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	53%	1.90	2.00 ▲
Draw no bet	Penarol (draw no bet) ✓	62%	1.62	–
Asian handicap	Racing Montevideo +1 (Asian handicap)	72%	1.38	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	67%	1.49	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	60%	1.68	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	92%	1.09	–
First team to score	Penarol to score first ✓	52%	1.92	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	46%	2.17	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Penarol / FT Penarol ✗	26%	3.80	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	9%	11.61	–

Racing Montevideo – last 6

LDLWLL

26 Sep	@ Progreso	1–2	L
21 Sep	@ Liverpool Montevideo	0–0	D
17 Sep	@ Juventud	0–3	L
12 Sep	vs Boston River	3–2	W
9 Sep	vs Central Espanol	2–4	L
6 Sep	@ Cerro	0–1	L

1.0Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Penarol – last 6

DWDWWW

1 Oct	@ Atletico Torque	1–1	D
26 Sep	vs Boston River	2–1	W
24 Sep	@ Danubio	1–1	D
19 Sep	@ Cerro	2–1	W
13 Sep	vs Albion FC	3–1	W
5 Sep	@ Danubio	4–0	W

2.2Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

83%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Penarol	35	19	9	7	+24	65
2	Deportivo Maldonado	35	18	9	8	+22	63
3	Atletico Torque	35	19	6	10	+18	63
4	Club Nacional	35	19	4	12	+11	61
5	Racing Montevideo	35	16	12	7	+14	60
6	Liverpool Montevideo	35	16	11	8	+16	59
7	Wanderers	35	14	9	12	-2	51
8	Albion FC	35	13	8	14	+3	47
9	Juventud	35	10	11	14	-6	41
10	Central Espanol	35	11	8	16	-13	41
11	Defensor Sporting	35	9	12	14	-8	39
12	Cerro Largo	35	9	10	16	-8	37
13	Boston River	35	10	7	18	-13	37
14	Cerro	35	10	7	18	-24	37
15	Progreso	35	10	5	20	-18	35
16	Danubio	35	6	14	15	-16	32

Team

Pts

+24

+22

+18

+11

+14

+16

-2

-6

-13

-8

-8

-13

-24

-18

-16

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.

Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?

On our numbers Racing Montevideo have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Penarol 47%.

How many goals will there be in Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?

Our predicted score is Racing Montevideo 1–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?

Racing Montevideo vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Centenario.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Racing Montevideo v Penarol: numbers & prediction