Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.96
Penarol vs Progreso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Progreso travel to face Penarol on Saturday 10 October in the Primera División Apertura – the ball rolls at 22:30 WAT. In the table, Penarol are 5th, upper half, on 22 points after 13 matches; Progreso are 7th (upper half) with 19. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Penarol, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Racing Montevideo, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Progreso, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Liverpool Montevideo, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Penarol, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Progreso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penarol 1.9 xG, Progreso 0.5 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penarol 71%, draw 20%, Progreso 9%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Penarol to win (71%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penarol 1–0 Progreso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penarol71%fair 1.41 · @1.40
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @4.40
Progreso9%fair 11.52 · @7.00
2.44Expected goals
1.92Penarol xG
0.52Progreso xG
49%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–016%
3–010%
0–09%
1–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.9 – 0.5 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
71%
1.41
1.40
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.08
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.94
1.67
Draw no bet
Penarol (draw no bet)
89%
1.12
–
Asian handicap
Penarol -1 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Penarol to score first✗
72%
1.39
–
Half-time result
Penarol ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
46%
2.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.96
–
Recent results
Penarol – last 6
WDWDWW
4 Oct
@ Racing Montevideo
1–0
W
1 Oct
@ Atletico Torque
1–1
D
26 Sep
vs Boston River
2–1
W
24 Sep
@ Danubio
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Cerro
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs Albion FC
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Progreso – last 6
LWWLLW
3 Oct
@ Liverpool Montevideo
2–3
L
26 Sep
vs Racing Montevideo
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Boston River
2–1
W
16 Sep
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs Cerro
1–3
L
7 Sep
@ Albion FC
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Progreso.
Our pick is Penarol to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Penarol vs Progreso?
On our numbers Penarol have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Progreso 9%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Progreso?
Penarol vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
