Progreso vs Juventud: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Juventud travel to face Progreso on Saturday 17 October in the Primera División Apertura, with Parque Abraham Paladino the venue – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT. In the table, Progreso are 7th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Juventud are 8th (upper half) with 18. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Progreso, last 5: DLWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Penarol, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Juventud, last 5: WWDDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Racing Montevideo, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Juventud, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Progreso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Progreso 1.0 xG, Juventud 1.4 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Progreso 30%, draw 22%, Juventud 49%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.73). Most likely score in line with that pick: Progreso 1–1 Juventud. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Progreso30%fair 3.37 · @3.10
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.30
Juventud49%fair 2.06 · @2.10
2.36Expected goals
0.99Progreso xG
1.37Juventud xG
55%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–113%
0–09%
1–09%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Progreso 1.0 – 1.4 Juventud expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Juventud to win✗
49%
2.06
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.73
Draw no bet
Juventud (draw no bet)✗
62%
1.61
–
Asian handicap
Progreso +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Juventud to score first✗
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Juventud / FT Juventud✗
27%
3.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.37
–
Recent results
Progreso – last 6
DLWWLL
10 Oct
@ Penarol
1–1
D
3 Oct
@ Liverpool Montevideo
2–3
L
26 Sep
vs Racing Montevideo
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Boston River
2–1
W
16 Sep
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs Cerro
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Juventud – last 6
WWDDWL
11 Oct
vs Racing Montevideo
2–0
W
8 Oct
@ Plaza Colonia
1–0
W
4 Oct
@ Boston River
0–0
D
27 Sep
vs Cerro
0–0
D
20 Sep
@ Albion FC
3–1
W
19 Sep
@ Deportivo Maldonado
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progreso and Juventud.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Progreso vs Juventud?
On our numbers Progreso have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Juventud 49%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Juventud?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Juventud?
Our predicted score is Progreso 1–1 Juventud, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Juventud?
Progreso vs Juventud (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
