Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Penarol to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✗61% · @1.91
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.63
Juventud vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Juventud welcome Penarol to Estadio Centenario for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Saturday 24 October (00:00 WAT). In the table, Juventud are 8th, upper half, on 18 points after 13 matches; Penarol are 5th (upper half) with 22.
Current form
Juventud, last 5: LWWDD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Progreso, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Penarol, last 5: LDWDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Liverpool Montevideo, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (21 Apr 2026) it ended Penarol 2–2 Juventud.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Juventud 0.7 xG, Penarol 1.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 49%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Juventud 16%, draw 24%, Penarol 61%.
Lower-risk option: Penarol or draw (84%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Penarol to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Penarol or draw (84%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Juventud 0–1 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Juventud16%fair 6.45 · @3.90
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.20
Penarol61%fair 1.65 · @1.91
2.42Expected goals
0.72Juventud xG
1.70Penarol xG
49%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
0–37%
From our goals model: Juventud 0.7 – 1.7 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Penarol or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Juventud vs Penarol?
On our numbers Juventud have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Penarol 61%.
How many goals will there be in Juventud vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Juventud vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Juventud 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Juventud vs Penarol?
Juventud vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Centenario.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
