Deportivo Maldonado v Danubio Prediction & Expected Goals (24 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win ✓56% · @1.85

Double chanceDeportivo Maldonado or draw ✓80% · @1.22

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.85

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.52

Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

23:30 WAT, Saturday 24 October: Deportivo Maldonado v Danubio in the Primera División Apertura. In the table, Deportivo Maldonado are 4th, among the top four, on 22 points after 13 matches; Danubio are 14th (in the drop zone) with 10. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Deportivo Maldonado, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Club Nacional, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.

Danubio, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Central Espanol, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (18 May 2026) it ended Deportivo Maldonado 3–1 Danubio.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Maldonado 1.5 xG, Danubio 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 48%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Maldonado 56%, draw 24%, Danubio 20%.
Lower-risk option: Deportivo Maldonado or draw (80%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.85.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Deportivo Maldonado or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Danubio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Deportivo Maldonado56%fair 1.78 · @1.85

Draw24%fair 4.25 · @3.25

Danubio20%fair 4.92 · @3.90

2.29Expected goals

1.52Deportivo Maldonado xG

0.77Danubio xG

48%Both score

40%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%

1–112%

2–012%

0–010%

2–19%

0–18%

From our goals model: Deportivo Maldonado 1.5 – 0.8 Danubio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Deportivo Maldonado to win ✓	56%	1.78	1.85
Double chance	Deportivo Maldonado or draw ✓	80%	1.26	1.22
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✗	52%	1.91	1.85
Draw no bet	Deportivo Maldonado (draw no bet) ✓	73%	1.36	–
Asian handicap	Danubio +1 (Asian handicap)	61%	1.63	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	67%	1.50	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	60%	1.67	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	92%	1.09	–
First team to score	Deportivo Maldonado to score first ✗	59%	1.68	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	45%	2.21	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado ✗	33%	3.02	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	15%	6.52	–

Deportivo Maldonado – last 6

LWDWWW

20 Oct	@ Club Nacional	2–3	L
15 Oct	vs Albion FC	4–1	W
10 Oct	vs Liverpool Montevideo	1–1	D
3 Oct	vs Central Espanol	3–0	W
27 Sep	@ Atletico Torque	2–0	W
24 Sep	@ Cerro	2–1	W

2.3Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Danubio – last 6

WWLWLD

18 Oct	vs Central Espanol	1–0	W
15 Oct	@ Central Espanol	6–0	W
9 Oct	@ Atletico Torque	0–1	L
4 Oct	vs Cerro Largo	2–1	W
27 Sep	@ Defensor Sporting	0–1	L
24 Sep	vs Penarol	1–1	D

1.7Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Penarol	35	19	9	7	+24	65
2	Deportivo Maldonado	35	18	9	8	+22	63
3	Atletico Torque	35	19	6	10	+18	63
4	Club Nacional	35	19	4	12	+11	61
5	Racing Montevideo	35	16	12	7	+14	60
6	Liverpool Montevideo	35	16	11	8	+16	59
7	Wanderers	35	14	9	12	-2	51
8	Albion FC	35	13	8	14	+3	47
9	Juventud	35	10	11	14	-6	41
10	Central Espanol	35	11	8	16	-13	41
11	Defensor Sporting	35	9	12	14	-8	39
12	Cerro Largo	35	9	10	16	-8	37
13	Boston River	35	10	7	18	-13	37
14	Cerro	35	10	7	18	-24	37
15	Progreso	35	10	5	20	-18	35
16	Danubio	35	6	14	15	-16	32

Team

Pts

+24

+22

+18

+11

+14

+16

-2

-6

-13

-8

-8

-13

-24

-18

-16

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio?

Our pick is Deportivo Maldonado or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio?

On our numbers Deportivo Maldonado have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Danubio 20%.

How many goals will there be in Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio?

Our predicted score is Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Danubio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio?

Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Deportivo Maldonado v Danubio: numbers & prediction