Deportivo La Guaira 63%Draw 25%Aragua FC 12%Expected goals 2.51 – 1.16
63%
Betarazi pick
Deportivo La Guaira to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDeportivo La Guaira to win ✓63% · @1.67
Double chanceDeportivo La Guaira or draw ✓88% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.75
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.74
Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 21 October the Copa Venezuela brings Deportivo La Guaira against Aragua FC at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV. Kick-off: 23:00 WAT.
Current form
Deportivo La Guaira, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Trujillanos FC, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Aragua FC, last 5: DWWWD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Momentum favours Aragua FC, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.7 for Deportivo La Guaira.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo La Guaira 2.5 xG, Aragua FC 1.2 xG – a total near 3.7. That is an open game on paper: 71% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo La Guaira 63%, draw 25%, Aragua FC 12%.
Lower-risk option: Deportivo La Guaira or draw (88%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Deportivo La Guaira to win (63%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.59, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo La Guaira 2–1 Aragua FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo La Guaira63%fair 1.59 · @1.67
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.40
Aragua FC12%fair 8.26 · @4.60
3.67Expected goals
2.51Deportivo La Guaira xG
1.16Aragua FC xG
61%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
2–08%
3–18%
1–17%
3–07%
1–06%
From our goals model: Deportivo La Guaira 2.5 – 1.2 Aragua FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo La Guaira to win✓
63%
1.59
1.67
Double chance
Deportivo La Guaira or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
1.75 ▲
Draw no bet
Deportivo La Guaira (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo La Guaira -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
–
First team to score
Deportivo La Guaira to score first✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Deportivo La Guaira ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo La Guaira / FT Deportivo La Guaira✓
44%
2.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.74
–
Recent results
Deportivo La Guaira – last 6
LDLLLW
17 Oct
vs Trujillanos FC
1–2
L
10 Oct
@ Portuguesa FC
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Deportivo Tachira FC
2–4
L
15 Sep
@ Carabobo FC
0–1
L
12 Sep
vs UCV
0–2
L
7 Sep
vs Anzoátegui FC
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Aragua FC – last 6
DWWWDW
18 Oct
@ Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
2–2
D
14 Oct
vs Caracas FC
3–1
W
7 Oct
@ Fundación Lara Deportiva
4–1
W
27 Sep
vs Atletico Avila FC
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Bolívar
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Petare FC
2–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo La Guaira and Aragua FC.
What is the prediction for Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC?
Our pick is Deportivo La Guaira to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC?
On our numbers Deportivo La Guaira have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Aragua FC 12%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC?
Our predicted score is Deportivo La Guaira 2–1 Aragua FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC?
Deportivo La Guaira vs Aragua FC (Copa Venezuela) kicks off on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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