Value bet: Sri Lanka to win @ 3.40 – our chance 43% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +45%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultSri Lanka to win43% · @3.40
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 10.71
Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 11 November the SAFF Championship brings Bangladesh against Sri Lanka at Bangabandhu National Stadium. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Bangladesh are 1st on 3 points after 1 matches; Sri Lanka are 2nd with 1. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Bangladesh, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 2–9 defeat to Indonesia, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Sri Lanka, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Mauritius, away. Away from home the record reads 4 won, 1 lost from 5. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Sri Lanka, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.5 for Bangladesh.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bangladesh 1.1 xG, Sri Lanka 1.5 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bangladesh 33%, draw 24%, Sri Lanka 43%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Sri Lanka to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 43%.
Betarazi verdict
We are going with Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bangladesh 1–1 Sri Lanka. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bangladesh33%fair 2.99 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @2.90
Sri Lanka43%fair 2.34 · @3.40
2.60Expected goals
1.06Bangladesh xG
1.54Sri Lanka xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Bangladesh 1.1 – 1.5 Sri Lanka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sri Lanka to win
43%
2.34
3.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.31
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.97
1.83
Draw no bet
Sri Lanka (draw no bet)
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Bangladesh +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
87%
1.15
1.08
First team to score
Sri Lanka to score first
55%
1.82
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sri Lanka / FT Sri Lanka
29%
3.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
10.71
–
Recent results
Bangladesh – last 6
LLLWLL
1 Oct
@ Indonesia
2–9
L
28 Sep
@ Singapore
0–1
L
25 Sep
vs Malaysia
0–3
L
5 Jun
@ San Marino
2–1
W
31 Mar
@ Singapore
0–1
L
26 Mar
@ Vietnam
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sri Lanka – last 6
WLWWWW
5 Oct
@ Mauritius
3–2
W
2 Oct
@ Mauritius
0–3
L
30 Sep
@ Seychelles
2–0
W
27 Sep
@ Seychelles
3–0
W
8 Jun
vs Bhutan
4–1
W
31 Mar
@ Chinese Taipei
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
What is the prediction for Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
On our numbers Bangladesh have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sri Lanka 43%.
How many goals will there be in Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
Our predicted score is Bangladesh 1–1 Sri Lanka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka (SAFF Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 11 November 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Bangabandhu National Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
India1
Maldives0