Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 53% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win58% · @1.65
Double chanceDeportivo Maldonado or draw82% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.72
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:30 WAT, Saturday 14 November: Deportivo Maldonado v Cerro in the Primera División Apertura. In the table, Deportivo Maldonado are 4th, among the top four, on 22 points after 13 matches; Cerro are 9th (lower half) with 18.
Current form
Deportivo Maldonado, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Albion FC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Cerro, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Central Espanol, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Deportivo Maldonado, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Cerro.
Head to head
When they last met (24 Sep 2026) it ended Cerro 1–2 Deportivo Maldonado.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Maldonado 1.7 xG, Cerro 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Maldonado 58%, draw 24%, Cerro 18%.
Lower-risk option: Deportivo Maldonado or draw (82%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 53%.
Betarazi verdict
The Betarazi pick is Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Cerro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Maldonado58%fair 1.72 · @1.65
Draw24%fair 4.08 · @3.50
Cerro18%fair 5.71 · @4.50
2.43Expected goals
1.67Deportivo Maldonado xG
0.76Cerro xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Deportivo Maldonado 1.7 – 0.8 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+14%
-9%
Goals conceded vs average
-23%
+20%
Our expected goals here
1.76
0.75
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
On our numbers Deportivo Maldonado have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cerro 18%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Cerro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
