Carmópolis vs Frei Paulistano: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Frei Paulistano travel to face Carmópolis on Saturday 14 November in the Sergipano 2 – the ball rolls at 22:00 WAT. In the table, Carmópolis are 2nd, among the top four, on 9 points after 5 matches; Frei Paulistano are 1st (leading the league) with 12. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Carmópolis, last 5: DDWWD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Olímpico SE, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.8 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Frei Paulistano, last 4: WWWL Their latest outing: 6–1 win over Independente Simão Dias, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 3.5 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Carmópolis 1.8 xG, Frei Paulistano 1.6 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 61% for three or more goals, 57% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Carmópolis 44%, draw 18%, Frei Paulistano 38%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.51.
Betarazi verdict
The Betarazi pick is Over 2.5 goals (61%, odds 1.61). Most likely score in line with that pick: Carmópolis 2–1 Frei Paulistano. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Carmópolis44%fair 2.26 · @2.24
Draw18%fair 5.65 · @3.44
Frei Paulistano38%fair 2.63 · @2.60
3.37Expected goals
1.76Carmópolis xG
1.61Frei Paulistano xG
57%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
2–27%
1–06%
0–16%
From our goals model: Carmópolis 1.8 – 1.6 Frei Paulistano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Carmópolis to win
44%
2.26
2.24
Double chance
Either team to win
82%
1.22
1.21
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.76
1.51
Draw no bet
Carmópolis (draw no bet)
54%
1.86
–
Asian handicap
Frei Paulistano +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
82%
1.23
1.16
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
61%
1.63
1.61
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
60%
1.67
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
77%
1.29
1.13
First team to score
Carmópolis to score first
50%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
37%
2.71
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Carmópolis / FT Carmópolis
25%
3.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.66
–
Recent results
Carmópolis – last 5
DDWWD
10 Nov
vs Olímpico SE
2–2
D
7 Nov
@ Socorrense
0–0
D
3 Nov
vs Caninde
3–0
W
31 Oct
vs América de Pedrinhas
8–0
W
28 Oct
@ Flamengo SE
1–1
D
2.8Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Frei Paulistano – last 4
WWWL
8 Nov
@ Independente Simão Dias
6–1
W
4 Nov
@ Estanciano
2–0
W
1 Nov
vs Barra SE
5–0
W
29 Oct
@ Maruinense
1–2
L
3.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Carmópolis and Frei Paulistano.
What is the prediction for Carmópolis vs Frei Paulistano?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.61.
Who will win Carmópolis vs Frei Paulistano?
On our numbers Carmópolis have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Frei Paulistano 38%.
How many goals will there be in Carmópolis vs Frei Paulistano?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Carmópolis vs Frei Paulistano?
Our predicted score is Carmópolis 2–1 Frei Paulistano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Carmópolis vs Frei Paulistano?
Carmópolis vs Frei Paulistano (Sergipano 2) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
