Value bet: Caninde to win @ 2.83 – our chance 40% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultMaruinense to win43% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win83% · @1.19
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals81% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.74
Maruinense vs Caninde: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Maruinense welcome Caninde for a Sergipano 2 fixture on Saturday 14 November (22:00 WAT). In the table, Maruinense are 2nd, among the top four, on 10 points after 5 matches; Caninde are 1st (leading the league) with 10. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Maruinense, last 4: DWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Independente Simão Dias, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Caninde, last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Socorrense, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.4 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Maruinense 1.6 xG, Caninde 1.6 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 60% and GG at 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Maruinense 43%, draw 17%, Caninde 40%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: Caninde to win @2.83 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 40%.
Betarazi verdict
We are going with Under 3.5 goals (62%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Maruinense 1–1 Caninde. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Maruinense43%fair 2.34 · @2.05
Draw17%fair 5.77 · @3.55
Caninde40%fair 2.50 · @2.83
3.17Expected goals
1.62Maruinense xG
1.56Caninde xG
56%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–17%
From our goals model: Maruinense 1.6 – 1.6 Caninde expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Maruinense to win
43%
2.34
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win
83%
1.21
1.19
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.80
1.50
Draw no bet
Maruinense (draw no bet)
52%
1.94
–
Asian handicap
Caninde +0.5 (Asian handicap)
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
81%
1.24
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
60%
1.68
1.58
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
62%
1.62
1.44
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
79%
1.27
1.14
First team to score
Maruinense to score first
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
38%
2.61
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Maruinense / FT Maruinense
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.74
–
Recent results
Maruinense – last 4
DWLW
11 Nov
vs Independente Simão Dias
1–1
D
4 Nov
vs Socorro Sport
3–1
W
1 Nov
@ Estanciano
0–1
L
29 Oct
vs Frei Paulistano
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Caninde – last 5
WWLDW
10 Nov
vs Socorrense
2–1
W
7 Nov
@ Flamengo SE
1–0
W
3 Nov
@ Carmópolis
0–3
L
31 Oct
vs Olímpico SE
3–3
D
28 Oct
@ América de Pedrinhas
6–1
W
2.4Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Maruinense and Caninde.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Maruinense vs Caninde?
On our numbers Maruinense have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Caninde 40%.
How many goals will there be in Maruinense vs Caninde?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Maruinense vs Caninde?
Our predicted score is Maruinense 1–1 Caninde, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Maruinense vs Caninde?
Maruinense vs Caninde (Sergipano 2) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
