Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Italy U21 to win @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultItaly U21 to win ✓62% · @1.80
Double chanceItaly U21 or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.17
Italy U21 vs Poland U21: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Italy U21 welcome Poland U21 to Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia for a UEFA U21 Championship Qualification fixture on Monday 5 October (17:15 WAT). In the table, Italy U21 are 1st on 24 points after 10 matches; Poland U21 are 3rd with 18.
Current form
Italy U21, last 4: WWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Armenia U21, away. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Poland U21, last 3: WWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Sweden U21, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.7 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Italy U21 2.2 xG, Poland U21 1.1 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 64% and GG at 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Italy U21 62%, draw 21%, Poland U21 17%.
Lower-risk option: Italy U21 or draw (83%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Italy U21 to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Italy U21 or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Italy U21 2–1 Poland U21. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Italy U2162%fair 1.60 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.87 · @3.25
Poland U2117%fair 5.84 · @3.80
3.28Expected goals
2.20Italy U21 xG
1.08Poland U21 xG
60%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Italy U21 2.2 – 1.1 Poland U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Italy U21 to win✓
62%
1.60
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Italy U21 or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.67
Draw no bet
Italy U21 (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.27
–
Asian handicap
Italy U21 -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
77%
1.31
–
First team to score
Italy U21 to score first✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Italy U21 ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Italy U21 / FT Italy U21✓
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.17
–
Recent results
Italy U21 – last 4
WWWW
1 Oct
@ Armenia U21
1–0
W
8 Jun
vs Albania U21
1–0
W
31 Mar
@ Sweden U21
4–0
W
26 Mar
vs North Macedonia U21
4–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Poland U21 – last 3
WWW
30 Sep
vs Sweden U21
3–0
W
31 Mar
@ Montenegro U21
1–0
W
27 Mar
vs Armenia U21
4–1
W
2.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Italy U21 and Poland U21.
What is the prediction for Italy U21 vs Poland U21?
Our pick is Italy U21 or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Italy U21 vs Poland U21?
On our numbers Italy U21 have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Poland U21 17%.
How many goals will there be in Italy U21 vs Poland U21?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Italy U21 vs Poland U21?
Our predicted score is Italy U21 2–1 Poland U21, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Italy U21 vs Poland U21?
Italy U21 vs Poland U21 (UEFA U21 Championship Qualification) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Montenegro U211
Armenia U211
Sweden U212
North Macedonia U210