Fiorentina v Parma Prediction & Expected Goals (8 Mar) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultFiorentina to win ✗58% · @1.73

Double chanceFiorentina or draw ✓82% · @1.17

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.83

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.36

Fiorentina vs Parma: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

15:00 WAT, Sunday 8 March: Fiorentina v Parma in the Serie A, played at Stadio Artemio Franchi. In the table, Fiorentina are 15th, lower half, on 9 points after 11 matches; Parma are 16th (lower half) with 8. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Fiorentina, last 4: LLWW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Udinese, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Parma, last 3: DWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cagliari, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Parma, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Fiorentina.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Fiorentina 1.7 xG, Parma 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 51%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Fiorentina 58%, draw 24%, Parma 18%.
Lower-risk option: Fiorentina or draw (82%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.83.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fiorentina 1–0 Parma. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Fiorentina58%fair 1.72 · @1.73

Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.50

Parma18%fair 5.53 · @4.85

2.59Expected goals

1.73Fiorentina xG

0.85Parma xG

51%Both score

48%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%

2–011%

1–111%

2–110%

0–08%

3–07%

From our goals model: Fiorentina 1.7 – 0.9 Parma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Fiorentina to win ✗	58%	1.72	1.73
Double chance	Fiorentina or draw ✓	82%	1.22	1.17
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	51%	1.97	1.83
Draw no bet	Fiorentina (draw no bet)	76%	1.31	–
Asian handicap	Parma +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	67%	1.49	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	73%	1.38	1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	52%	1.94	1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	73%	1.38	1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	86%	1.16	1.11
First team to score	Fiorentina to score first ✗	62%	1.61	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	42%	2.39	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Fiorentina / FT Fiorentina ✗	36%	2.77	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.36	–

Fiorentina – last 4

LLWW

2 Mar	@ Udinese	0–3	L
26 Feb	vs Jagiellonia	0–3	L
23 Feb	vs Pisa	1–0	W
19 Feb	@ Jagiellonia	3–0	W

1.0Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

0%Both scored

75%Over 2.5

Parma – last 3

DWW

27 Feb	vs Cagliari	1–1	D
22 Feb	@ AC Milan	1–0	W
15 Feb	vs Verona	2–1	W

1.3Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

67%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5

Team

Pts

+16

+15

+21

+10

-5

-2

-3

-5

-10

-8

-8

-13

-8

-13

-13

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Fiorentina vs Parma?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win Fiorentina vs Parma?

On our numbers Fiorentina have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Parma 18%.

How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Parma?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Parma?

Our predicted score is Fiorentina 1–0 Parma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Fiorentina vs Parma?

Fiorentina vs Parma (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Artemio Franchi.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Fiorentina v Parma: numbers & prediction