Value bet: Fiorentina to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFiorentina to win ✗56% · @1.91
Double chanceFiorentina or draw ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.13
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:30 WAT, Sunday 26 April: Fiorentina v Sassuolo in the Serie A, played at Stadio Artemio Franchi. In the table, Fiorentina are 15th, lower half, on 9 points after 11 matches; Sassuolo are 17th (lower half) with 8. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Fiorentina, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Lecce, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Sassuolo, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Como, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Fiorentina, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Sassuolo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fiorentina 2.0 xG, Sassuolo 1.1 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fiorentina 56%, draw 24%, Sassuolo 21%.
Lower-risk option: Fiorentina or draw (79%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Fiorentina to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fiorentina 1–1 Sassuolo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fiorentina56%fair 1.79 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.30
Sassuolo21%fair 4.87 · @4.10
3.10Expected goals
1.97Fiorentina xG
1.13Sassuolo xG
61%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–09%
2–09%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Fiorentina 2.0 – 1.1 Sassuolo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fiorentina to win✗
56%
1.79
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Fiorentina or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.73 ▲
Draw no bet
Fiorentina (draw no bet)
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Sassuolo +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.12
First team to score
Fiorentina to score first✗
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Fiorentina ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fiorentina / FT Fiorentina✗
36%
2.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.13
–
Recent results
Fiorentina – last 6
DWWLWW
20 Apr
@ Lecce
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs Crystal Palace
2–1
W
13 Apr
vs Lazio
1–0
W
9 Apr
@ Crystal Palace
0–3
L
19 Mar
@ Raków Częstochowa
2–1
W
16 Mar
@ Cremonese
4–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sassuolo – last 6
WLLLWW
17 Apr
vs Como
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Genoa
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Bologna
0–1
L
9 Mar
@ Lazio
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs Atalanta
2–1
W
20 Feb
vs Verona
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fiorentina and Sassuolo.
What is the prediction for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
On our numbers Fiorentina have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sassuolo 21%.
How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our predicted score is Fiorentina 1–1 Sassuolo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
