AC Milan 45%Draw 25%Atalanta 30%Expected goals 1.56 – 1.12
74%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.28
8/10Rating
1.28Odds
Picks by market
ResultAC Milan to win45% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score62% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.70
AC Milan vs Atalanta: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:45 WAT, Sunday 10 May: AC Milan v Atalanta in the Serie A, played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. In the table, AC Milan are 4th, among the top four, on 24 points after 11 matches; Atalanta are 12th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
AC Milan, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Sassuolo, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Atalanta, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Cagliari, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AC Milan 1.6 xG, Atalanta 1.1 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AC Milan 45%, draw 25%, Atalanta 30%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: AC Milan 1–1 Atalanta. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AC Milan45%fair 2.21 · @2.12
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @3.30
Atalanta30%fair 3.35 · @3.35
2.68Expected goals
1.56AC Milan xG
1.12Atalanta xG
62%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: AC Milan 1.6 – 1.1 Atalanta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AC Milan to win
45%
2.21
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.33
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
62%
1.62
1.65
Draw no bet
AC Milan (draw no bet)
60%
1.66
–
Asian handicap
Atalanta +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
74%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
51%
1.97
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
85%
1.18
1.13
First team to score
AC Milan to score first
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AC Milan / FT AC Milan
28%
3.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.70
–
Recent results
AC Milan – last 6
LWLLWL
3 May
@ Sassuolo
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Hellas Verona
1–0
W
6 Apr
@ Napoli
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Lazio
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Cremonese
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs Parma
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Atalanta – last 6
LWWLLD
27 Apr
@ Cagliari
2–3
L
6 Apr
@ Lecce
3–0
W
22 Mar
vs Hellas Verona
1–0
W
18 Mar
@ Bayern München
1–4
L
10 Mar
vs Bayern München
1–6
L
4 Mar
@ Lazio
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AC Milan and Atalanta.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win AC Milan vs Atalanta?
On our numbers AC Milan have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atalanta 30%.
How many goals will there be in AC Milan vs Atalanta?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AC Milan vs Atalanta?
Our predicted score is AC Milan 1–1 Atalanta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is AC Milan vs Atalanta?
AC Milan vs Atalanta (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Hellas Verona0
Cremonese3
Pisa0