Lecce v Genoa Prediction & Expected Goals (24 May) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultLecce to win ✓49% · @1.72

Double chanceLecce or draw ✓76% · @1.15

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.15

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.49

Lecce vs Genoa: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

19:45 WAT, Sunday 24 May: Lecce v Genoa in the Serie A, played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare. In the table, Lecce are 14th, lower half, on 10 points after 11 matches; Genoa are 13th (lower half) with 13. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Lecce, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Sassuolo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Genoa, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to AC Milan, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Momentum favours Lecce, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.7 for Genoa.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Lecce 1.4 xG, Genoa 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 53%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Lecce 49%, draw 27%, Genoa 24%.
Lower-risk option: Lecce or draw (76%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 53%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lecce 1–1 Genoa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Lecce49%fair 2.03 · @1.72

Draw27%fair 3.71 · @3.45

Genoa24%fair 4.19 · @5.10

2.40Expected goals

1.36Lecce xG

1.05Genoa xG

53%Both score

43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–012%

0–19%

0–09%

2–19%

2–08%

From our goals model: Lecce 1.4 – 1.0 Genoa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Lecce to win ✓	49%	2.03	1.72
Double chance	Lecce or draw ✓	76%	1.31	1.15
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	53%	1.88	2.15 ▲
Draw no bet	Lecce (draw no bet) ✓	67%	1.48	–
Asian handicap	Genoa +1 (Asian handicap)	73%	1.36	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	68%	1.47	1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	57%	1.74	1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	78%	1.28	1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	90%	1.12	1.06
First team to score	Lecce to score first ✓	51%	1.95	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	45%	2.22	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Lecce / FT Lecce ✓	26%	3.92	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.49	–

Lecce – last 6

WWDLWW

17 May	@ Sassuolo	3–2	W
1 May	@ Pisa	2–1	W
20 Apr	vs Fiorentina	1–1	D
6 Apr	vs Atalanta	0–3	L
8 Mar	vs Cremonese	2–1	W
16 Feb	@ Cagliari	2–0	W

1.7Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Genoa – last 6

LDLWLL

17 May	vs AC Milan	1–2	L
10 May	@ Fiorentina	0–0	D
26 Apr	vs Como	0–2	L
12 Apr	vs Sassuolo	2–1	W
6 Apr	@ Juventus	0–2	L
20 Mar	vs Udinese	0–2	L

0.5Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5

Team

Pts

+16

+15

+21

+10

-5

-2

-3

-5

-10

-8

-8

-13

-8

-13

-13

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lecce vs Genoa?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?

On our numbers Lecce have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Genoa 24%.

How many goals will there be in Lecce vs Genoa?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Lecce vs Genoa?

Our predicted score is Lecce 1–1 Genoa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Lecce vs Genoa?

Lecce vs Genoa (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Lecce v Genoa: numbers & prediction